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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: waverider who wrote (31139)	2/19/2002 9:05:21 PM
From: Caxton Rhodes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

800 would be a 7 year low. Like to see what brought you to that conclusion. Caxton siliconinvestor.com siliconinvestor.com

To: waverider who wrote (31139)	2/19/2002 9:12:14 PM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Still see NAZ 800 before this is over ..... So you basically feel that this Bubble is worse than that of the Great Depression ? Interesting ..... At least this time around, I expect the bread lines to offer rye and pita. Chris

To: waverider who wrote (31139)	2/19/2002 9:15:57 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Still see NAZ 800 before this is over wr, Now that is bearish! I sure hope it does not get that far; that would probably mean a severe recession in the works. jmho

To: waverider who wrote (31139)	2/19/2002 10:41:49 PM
From: Mike M	Respond to of 99280

Still see NAZ 800 before this is over. I'm torn between 700 and 1385 myself. Thing is I'm almost sure I'm right...if I can just figure out when its over.

To: waverider who wrote (31139)	2/20/2002 8:36:36 AM
From: exp	Respond to of 99280

Wave: I agree that NAZ 800 is possible though unlikely . Here is why: SPX Fair Value P/E=20 (based on ten year bond yield). NAZ P/E (using forward 02 eps) was 50 when NAZ was 2000 at the end of 2001. NAZ Fair Value P/E=1.5 x SPX Fair Value P/E= 1.5 x 20=30 according to prevailing Wall Street assumptions. Thus, NAZ Fair Value=2000 x(30:50)=1,200. HOWEVER, historically, NAZ Fair Value P/E was close to SPX Fair Value P/E which is 20. So, historical NAZ Fair Value=2000 x(20/50)=800. In addition, all the Fair Value above are based on pro-forma eps NOT the GAAP eps used historically. ON THE OTHER HAND, as time passes, forward NAZ eps are increasing at a rate of perhaps 10-20% a year which will proportionately increase the NAZ Fair Values.