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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: techanalyst1 who wrote (10575)	2/20/2002 12:42:26 AM
From: Mark Fowler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

Are we looking at a market bottom here , or is it discounting something else? . '97 levels?

To: techanalyst1 who wrote (10575)	2/20/2002 9:52:39 AM
From: Wizard	Respond to of 57684

Well we are still in the hangover stage of this thing. However, it is 5pm and after sitting around eating greasy food and watching football and taking a nap, the hangover is starting to fade... The economy is clearly getting better. That was one hell of a party and there have been lots of casualties but the worst is long over. There is no question we are in a recovery now. The current worries are typical of recoveries. Looking at the economic data though, it is consistently coming in stronger than expected. re acctg, Companies with confusing balance sheets are going down but companies with clean balance sheets are going down too. You would think you would get a premium for clean accounting if some are getting big haircuts due to confusing accounting. However, they are all going down. This is where Japan went wrong and hid everything and they are still feeling the ill-effects. Lets do the witch hunt and get on with this thing like we did with Al Qaeda. The big difference now vs the last few market freefalls is that this time, earnings estimates have begun a new upcycle... I think this is a retracement. If we end Q1 this low, Q2 could be a very good quarter. Valuations aren't all that attractive in the large cap area but I can find smaller companies poised to grow 25 to 40% and I can get 'em for 20x earning power. No hurry here in Q1, but the world is a much better place now relative to a year ago.