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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (15259)	2/20/2002 12:47:07 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi tm99: First, thanks for the thread. I enjoy your well-informed posts with their interesting historical perspectives. I do not have all the answers and do not think I have claimed to. Someone has to show up here, however, and provide a little counterpoint or this thread would be just another CFZ. (I was banned from the CFZ by the way for espousing the radical point of view that Alan Greenspan has done a good job and supporting my pov with data). We are in an interesting period where almost any pov can find supporting evidence. The more dramatic interpretations are the most interesting, which is why the disaster scenarios get so much play, imho. They are just so much more seductive than boring business as usual. Nevertheless, your posts advocating continued stock market losses and serious trouble for the broad economy are well thought out and well supported. You may well be proven right. It is just my humble opinion that there is nothing inevitable about this, that predicting economic disaster is a road that is littered with the corpses of discredited prophets of doom - Granville, Prechter, et al. - and that it is a mistake to underestimate the resilience of the US economy. >>If everything is so good then why are the markets dropping and going to drop more?<< I don't recall writing "everything is good." What I have written is better represented, I think, as "not everything is bad." My opinion as to why the markets are dropping is that we are in a period of uncertainty with no clear view of the future. Investors are worried. As to whether they will drop more, we shall see, but the broad averages are still well above their 9/21 lows. >>Why is gold going up?<< My opinion is that this is short-term sentiment driven and not a secular trend. Investors are nervous. My opinion is that this short-term strength will evaporate like snowflakes in August if stocks move up with any conviction. >>Why aren't the markets in line with bullish pronostications of a coming economic boom?<< I think it could be argued that, at current P/Es, the markets ARE in line with bullish prognostications of a coming economic boom. Either that or stockholders will shortly be sheared like so many sheep as P/Es fall.

To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (15259)	2/20/2002 1:04:35 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Why is gold going up? Perhaps because the Japanese holder of bank savings accounts who is going to have his governmental safety net yanked away from him on March 31, 2002, is the savviest investor on the planet. Not that it requires a whole lot of gray matter for the Japanese to read the writing on the wall. If the Japanese can, why can't others? If the Japanese banks implode, as they well should, what happens next? More down-side reflexivity, in my view, and more opportunities for dung beetles.

To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (15259)	2/20/2002 6:39:03 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Seems like gold is going down to me and gold stocks getting hammered another day today on the ASX.

To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (15259)	2/20/2002 11:38:06 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

Mike, Gold is not going up. It's going down. Markets are not dropping. They have dropped. They are rising and are going to accelerate in the biggest move in human history. The bears have had their fun in the first couple of years of the 21st century, but now it's game over: Message 17090741 I guess we can close this discussion group now and leave Jay to report on his gradual transition into a calypso troppo bush-baby, grinning from ear to ear and eating natural foods in natural surroundings. It's been a fun couple of years. Mqurice