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To: Boplicity who wrote (113792)	2/20/2002 3:30:25 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

but rates are but one piece of 5-D chess game higher rates will likely usher in higher mortgage rates, and lower property prices higher rates will likely tip the scales are bring about the long-awaited USdollar slide (not a big slide, but 5-10% versus Euro) if the former happens, then consumer spending might get hurt I read that the lost stock wealth effect is not anywhere as important as the growing household equity wealth effect softer property values will have a sure effect on tolerated levels of debt if the latter happens, then foreign-held stocks might be sold off to some degree offset any stock gains by a currency translation loss in 1994, the shock of higher rates was extremely disruptive I expect the same with the welcomed higher rates later this year or early next in 1994, GreenSpasm raised rates from 3.5% to 7.5% quickly this time around I expect him to hold off as long as possible but the damage will be worse than in 1994 back then Japan sent $600 billion to US shores this time Japan is pulling back untallied $B's / Jim