To: chowder who wrote (12555 ) 2/20/2002 6:29:42 PM From: Sweet Ol Respond to of 23153 Dabum, here are my thoughts on the Naz, with a few other thoughts thrown in for free. Yesterday the Naz broke through the 61.8% fib retrace, so that usually means it will retrace 100% (to the Sept lows). But a short bounce is probably in order. Today it bounced off the 11/1 gap and could go on up to the resistance of its FTC at about 1790-1800 in the next week, give or take. The white hammer is not at the bottom of the chain, so I don't consider it as important when it is up next to the long red. A drift lower to 1650 in the next few days seems almost as likely as a brief rally. The Weekly and Monthly are firmly in FTC's. The weekly indicators are all down, the monthlys are mixed.stockcharts.com I note that the $NDX (or QQQ) has not fallen as fast as the COMPQ, it has only retraced about 55%. So the big dogs are still holding things up. The VXN says we are not close to a bottom yet. In the past, the RSI needs to get above 65 for the VXN to signal a bottom. The Dow is still in its horizontal trading range and the VIX seems to agree with that. The S&P looks better on a daily basis, but the weekly is still in a strong FTC. The Russell 2000 is in a strong FTC. That ties with the COMP falling more than the NDX. I have noticed for the last few months that when the Naz falls in the last hour that the next day finishes up and vice versa. The last three hourly candles are white, the last one rather smaller. So, tomorrow is likely to be down. That suggests that tomorrow we will see the boyz give us a gap and crap day. A down day tomorrow will pretty well negate today's white hammer, but a rally will confirm it. As you know, they need confirmation. FWIW, I am mostly short techs and QQQ and long some your brothers favs (HAL, HC, VPI, PGO) in addition to my long term gambles on some small techs and small gassers. I wish we would hurry up and get to the bottom so I don't have to sit here and watch this stupid screen all day. Best to all, JRH