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Biotech / Medical : Imclone systems (IMCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 613 who wrote (2074)	2/20/2002 4:56:20 PM
From: Cacaito	Respond to of 2515

Good, they are a day late and several billion$ short due to the same data that they could have provided in months now they will have in weeks? very impressive! The drug was being evaluated on a "surrogate" goal, that is a goal that pressumely will imply something else, in this case tumor shrinkage pressumely correlates with increase survival, that was the shortcut and an appropriate one that was GRANTED by the Fda to Imcl, they botched their chance. Notice that the 22.5%, 15%, your 10% , the solo trial 10% are about a surrogate point "tumor shrinkage" not about surviaval, they are not equal at all. Therefore, your 10% theory apply only if survival were the case, of course it will be good to have 10% increase chance, but to prove that a pII is not enough, as the effect is lower in %, the sample size needs to be larger (and placebo controls more necessary). Imcl problem is not just this "faulty" trial, all the other trials will be highly scrutinized, there is a big campaign agaisnt the Fda by the soap opera camp, even the WSJ put a little (idiotic placebo talk) on it, and the Fda can not go and pr around like a bunch of monkey analysts a la mccammant (is or was a shareholder). Who is to warranted that the other trials are running in expected order? the wacksals? Bmy could have no approval in 1.5 years but they are much better that the imclowns, anyway no one could do a good Fda Bla with a faulty drug.