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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PerryA who wrote (152468)	2/20/2002 5:16:05 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I happen to think that the 9-11 attacks are going to be the cause of a double dip recession. The huge impulse caused by the Feds to the entire economy have given it a small boost (and the stock market a big boost), and the hammering of interest rates have caused a large short term gain in disposable cash thanks to refinances (esp. 100%+ LTV loans); but it won't stop the reaper from calling. With all the capacity dislocations caused by the bubble and the rebound effected primarily via consumer debt and by Wall Street-isms (shady or false accounting, gimmickry, charades, deception, transfer of wealth, transfer of jobs overseas), the ability of the American consumer to fuel our economy (and others' economies) continues to wane. There will be a price to pay for the transfer of wealth, namely in long term demand. I think something will crack at some point. The main cost in the aftermath of 9-11 has been military action at home and abroad. Somebody will be expected to pay for that some day. In the meantime, a lot of other programs will be cut because of the rapidly ramping deficits. And in general, military action costs a lot more than peaceful activities (takes just an ensign to launch a million dollar missile, etc.). BTW, my raise that was schedule for this July looks like it will be eliminated any day now due to budget shortfalls in Washington State, and to add insult to injury, our taxes may also go up.