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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (113818)	2/20/2002 6:17:59 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Art: QCOM has already forecast 80 to 90 million handsets for 2002. Cahners estimates 102 million CDMA handsets. I made an error in CDMA estimates based on the slide show. I thought the number reflected the estimates for the total number of CDMA subs from 2002 through 2005, not the total number of handsets sold for each year. By 2004, the replacement of CDMA handsets will equal the number of global CDMA subs, assuming that replacement handsets account for 75% of total sales. QCOM shipped XX million chipsets to a CDMA worldwide customer base of (23 million in 1998. CDG - Feb 8, 1999) QCOM shipped XX million chipsets to a CDMA worldwide customer base of (50 million in 1999. CDG - Feb 7, 2000) QCOM shipped XX million handsets to a CDMA worldwide customer base of (80 million for 2000. CDG - Mar 20, 2001) QCOM shipped 75 million handsets to a CDMA worldwide customer base of (103 million in 2001. CDG - January, 2002) (66% replacement for new handsets) QCOM is expected to ship 90 million chipsets for CDMA handsets in 2002 to a CDMA customer base of 125 million. (assuming 75 % replacement ration to new subs) QCOM is expected ship 141 million (Cahners est.) for CDMA handsets in 2003 to a CDMA base of 160 million (assuming 75% replacement ratio) QCOM is expected to ship 200 million (Chahners est.) for CDMA handsets in 2004 to a CDMA base of 190 million (using 75% repalcement ratio) QCOM is expected to ship 250 million (Cahners est.) for CDMA handsets in 2005 to a CDMA base of 253 million (using a 75% replacement) I've used a very high replacement ratio to keep the number of global CDMA subs to a realistic level. The number would grow to 480 million, using a 50% replacement ratio to new subs. If anyone knows the ASIC levels for 1998 through 2000, it would be helpful.