Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Freep who wrote (31493)	2/20/2002 8:04:39 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

i keep saying,no one listens:)--watch the VIX RSI as that washes out the "was it 26 or was it 37?" Regards the complacency because portfolio looks better because of panic selling.Barton Biggs has consistently thrown out a figure that states over 50% of investors just watched their portfolios dissolve and never sold.He states,in his opinion,until they get flushed out market can't stabilize and we will not have achieved it's bottom. Looking at Trailing P/E graph of SPX500 from 1991 to now,mindblowing.We make 1996 look like the depth of a depression market. P/E wise, we are at alltime highs for wild optimism and floor jumping irrational exuberance. In short, extreme complacency OR extreme denial.

To: The Freep who wrote (31493)	2/20/2002 9:44:04 PM
From: exp	Respond to of 99280

Freep: Good arguments, however, IMO high VIX in Sep 01 WILL NOT prevent a new low on SPX simply because it WILL NOT be necessary to match that high VIX when we go to a new SPX low. Zeev, for example is calling for DOW to go below 7500. This will almost automatically result in a new SPX low below 945 of Sep 01. The very high VIX levels are caused by the rapidity of a decline, i.e. very large numbers of puts are bought in a period of, say, several days at prices rising parabolically. With declines occurring over longer time periods you will not see such extreme levels of VIX in the absence of an unexpected event/market collapse yet lower lows may occur nonetheless.