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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (57769)	2/20/2002 10:22:03 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Hi all, just thought some folks here might want to know this. I redid my discounted cash flows analysis on Cisco. I took out all shenanigans from stock options and used an adjusted free cash flows. The revenue growth rates I assumed were -13% (2002), 30% (2003), 25% (2004), 20% (2005), 15% (2006-2010), 10% (2011-2015), and 5% (2016-2030). The discount rate I used was 10% (which represents what I could get on investing in the S&P500 over the long term instead). I also assumed an o/s share growth rate of 3% per year every year. The net present value of all future cash flows per share came out to be $12.98. So that would put Cisco at about 1.3 times DCF valuation. That is the lowest I've ever seen Cisco valued at relative to DCF. That doesn't mean it can't go lower. It just means that I think if we haven't reached the bottom, then the bottom is pretty close. Again, I'll be a buyer below $15, but make your own decisions based on your own research. Good luck all!