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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bill Harmond who wrote (10593)2/21/2002 12:36:41 PM
From: Wizard  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57684
 
I haven't followed it that closely. My back of the envelope analysis is the following:

ONI is getting 24% of the newco

If we take March Revs and ballpark gross margins

ONI = $40mm @ 37% GM = ~$15mm Gross Profit
CIEN = $100mm @ 40% GM = ~$40mm Gross Profit

ONI Gross Profit Contribution = ~27%
CIEN Gross Profit Contribution = ~73%

This is dirty analysis but that is all M&A bankers do anyway so the % of newco looks ok to me... We won't know what went on in the boardroom but I agree, the timing of the announcements is a little strange. For all the talk about the metro space, it isn't big enough for big players to grow yet there are no customers building core so it becomes a slugfest. Too many players going after a sub-$1b market.