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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (10683)	2/21/2002 4:14:00 PM
From: Amots	Respond to of 19219

If you look at the Rydex numbers for the last year (thanks to J.T), you can see that investors are getting smarter (at least in Rydex -g-), its not much of a contrary indicator lately.

To: marginmike who wrote (10683)	2/21/2002 4:19:21 PM
From: Killswitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

I think a crash is doubtful... the Naz just had to do some catching up today- both to finally hit its lower downtrend line and also to finally get back to the congestion levels from the 2nd half of Oct that the S&P has already been bouncing around in for a while now. I think more likely is we bounce back up sometime tomorrow to take another shot at the upper Naz downtrend line over the next few days. If it were to eventually break that line combined with rydex ratio levels dropping below 15 (it definitely seems caught in a range between 15 and 20 right now) then that would be ultra-bullish. I'm still not convinced that we can develop enough bearish ooomph while the ratios are already this high to be able to make it all the way straight down for a retest now.

To: marginmike who wrote (10683)	2/21/2002 7:12:37 PM
From: J. P.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

I think you're right about a crash. And it's not what I want to see. Unless they can do a jam job at the end of the day tomorrow, it could get ugly going into the weekend. Then you're set up for a dark Monday potentially. The VXN still hasn't confirmed a breakout, which is one of the few good signs for the bulls. It's still at a lower high on a downtrend, and failed to break through the 50 DMA. Another sign for the bulls is that we are way oversold...but it is a bear market.... The bearish signs are scary. There is no support for the NDX, and lots of leading issues like INTC for a while. And I can tell you the earnings news is not going to get better going into the next quarter....there will be lots and lots of tech warnings. What tech company is really selling stuff? Dell is weak and cannibilizing margins...so that rolls downhill to all the component makers. Telecom and Long Distance are garbage, they're not buying much from Cisco who doesn't have written down inventory to dump any more. IBM's books are cooked....I need not go on. I just wish the market repricing would be more gradual...a crash is not good for anybody unless you are highly bearishly positioned at these low oversold levels....which would be a very bold and risky move in of itself, but maybe a profitable one. EDIT: OEX sitting on support, which is another thing bulls can hang their hats on...