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Technology Stocks : Leap Wireless International (LWIN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (1483)	2/21/2002 5:46:37 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 2737

i remember reading a number of cases where bonds were priced for bankruptcy while equities (of various companies) were still fairly high. that didn't make much sense, since the bonds are in front of the shareholders. it could be that the LWIN case is more typical. also, it is hard to know how valid the bond quote is (i.e., i don't have any idea how much volume is trading). they only show one issue on bondsonline, but i don't see any trading data. but we can easily look at the equity and see what its volume is (high) and what the trend is (down). that doesn't really answer who is selling the stock and why. again i will mention that GX had a similar pattern where the bond quotes were fairly high while the stock tanked last August.

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (1483)	2/21/2002 5:51:00 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 2737

if the average weighted price of a sale of LWIN today was 4.50, and volume was 5.387 million, then that's over $24 million. even allowing for double counting, that is some $12 million unloaded at a minimum. so as for the bonds, the question is, what average price would somebody get if they tried to unload $12-24 million LWIN bonds in one day? actually, since bonds are greater than market cap, the equivalent (percentagewise) amount of bonds might be much higher. we can see that unloading that much equity drove the stock down 22% today...what would the amount be for bonds? i believe it might be more than is indicated by the bondsonline quote. just my wild-ass guess. #reply-17086314

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (1483)	2/21/2002 9:58:18 PM
From: METMAN	Respond to of 2737

Jon ... thanks ... so if I put your comments and Mucho's [which include A.L.'s reference to GX] all together, there could be an unknown 'party' out there trying to drive the common to zero and take possession of the company via the bonds ... if that party could somehow know, suspect, or hope that bankruptcy is possibility in the future. Of course the market has to cooperate by continuing to sell along, correct ? Otherwise with no other information, we might just be looking at severe market Eronitis from say, mid-10's down to around 9 ... debt sell-off concerns from 9 to 6, and near panic from 6 through today, and beyond? Of course ... it's now down nearly 83% from the start of the year. The spin-off was about 6.75, I believe. New 52 week low today, etc. I remember LWIN briefly going to about 3.5 in the very beginning before anyone understood what it really was going to become ... again, today we were very close to everyone's initial buy in price at that level. Was today the final capitulation for LWIN that washed out even some the originals ?? ... Somehow I am doubtful ... and besides, Mquarice missed his $5 dollar buying op ... and wants to wait for $3.... so ... tomorrow is a new day. I find it very interesting that no one is tearing AWE or its stock apart ... given what they'll have to spend eventually to get some speed into their network vs. PCS. All you hear now is that "AWE is the most solid of the carriers .. etc." Perhaps that is true on the balance sheet today, but not by next year ! Thanks for the explanation vis-a-vis GSTRF - my old flame. regards, metman