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Technology Stocks : SDLI - JDSU transition -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DBrian who wrote (3043)	2/21/2002 11:46:40 PM
From: Timetobuy	Respond to of 3294

Nope. Pmcs has until the late 90s (pre bubble valuation which are unlikely to return this generation) traded for anywhere from less than one times sales to two times sales. I think that by the end of my life that's where it is again. But lets give pmcs a valuation equal to four times sales. To get a stock price of $255 (market cap of 42 billion), sales would have to be more than 10 billion per year. Working from a base of 200 million per year and an average of 15% annual revenue growth (I'm well aware that there are going to be years with growth much higher than that, but there will also be years of hiccups too. Look at msft to see how growth slows over time) it would take almost 28 years to get to 10 billion in revenues. By then I'll be 60. I hope I'll live longer than that, but I think it's probably not going to trade for a p/s of 4 in 28 years which gives me a few more years to remember when pmcs sold for $255 per share and wonder at what price the person who bought there sold for. Jdsu would take 29 years working from a base of a billion in sales to get a p/s of 4 and a market cap of 231 billion (stock price of $153). It doesn't matter to me. Buying jdsu at 3-5 and it only has to get to 30 to be a 6-10 bagger for me. At a revenue run rate of 11 billion, jdsu probably trades for 30 buckaroos. Good thing I have a long time to wait.