ALERT---------HERE'S LAST SUNDAYS NEWSLETTER REPORT AFTER MY NICE VACATION..I WAS CLEAR HEADED FOR SURE..WHILE I THINK WE MAY GET A BOUNCE HERE TECHNICALLY, I DO BELIEVE WE BREAK 1080 SPX---545 OEX ETC ETC...NO WAY WE CAN HOLD THESE TESTS AFTER TESTS WITHOUT THE FINAL BREAKDOWN...GOOD LUCK GOIING FORWARD, AND KEEP SOME POWDER DRY FOR THE CSCO'S OF THE WORLD ON THOSE LEAP CALLS..
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JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED FEB 17TH 2002
"THE CORRECTION CONTINUES"
Hi Everyone, hope all is well with you and yours...
Well Arlene and me got back from St. Maarten tanned and rested, a little over weight<g>, diet Monday for damn sure, but all in all it was very nice for us to get away...Hoping to head down to Florida next month or April for 3-4 days as well...I cleared the cobwebs and feel rejuvenated..You might want to try to get away yourselves..it really does help...
I tried not to think about the markets too much<g>, just watched the daily numbers not CNBC...not kidding either..heck i'd be DOA<VBG>...If you review the last short newsletter on Thursday of the week i left, you can judge for yourself the accuracy of those up side targets...we were right on the money..i felt we had gotten oversold, and were due for a bounce...the whole scenario played out well what with Carpino calling for a cycle top on Friday too...the selloff was very strong, and i'm thinking we are going down right here to test the recent lows..,1080 SPX...we'll watch those numbers to see if they hold, if not?, next stop is 1050ish..then 1030..a bottom there i think..
we talked about it briefly in the room on Friday i dropped by to say hello and tell everyone i'm back...I've been saying all along that the NYSE is much stronger than the NAZ stocks..and thats of course very evident...The NAZ and NDX both look very weak to me..and now the BKX, the Banking Index is starting to roll over here and down, so this could push the DOW down too...There are a lot of crosscurrents moving in and out of the internals of this market right here...it will be difficult to trade if your not on your toes, alert and focused...
As soon as this washout occurs i am going long about 10 stocks using options for the July Time frame..I want to SEE the bottom hold and reverse back up here in our 2 favorite sectors, Bio techs & Semis..they are near the 30% level and becoming oversold..they will lead this next best rally up for sure..i'll be there with bells on, AND SO WILL YOU...So get your houses in order, sign those options papers etc..i'm tired of telling you<g>..
BTW thanks for those stocks with dividends, i got 1 from a non subscriber...hey what ever turns you on...we did touch on it in the room..it's a sensational way to rake in about 10-15% per year on a solid investment for your longer term portfolio's...so recheck and send me some goodies to look at..we want LEAP Calls if possible..if not, then any options will do...thats the leverage folks...we talked about MO, the stocks at 51+ the Jan 2003 55 strike leaps are $2.50, it pays a $2.52 dividend...so you buy the stock say 1000 shares for $51, 500...it pays you $2500 in dividends for the year, plus you pick up another $2500 for writing the Jan 2003 55 strike leaps, and guess what..if the stock is OVER 55, you make ANOTHER 3 1/2 points from 51 1/2 to 55..thats $3500 added to your deal..if the stock stands still under 55 you take in $5000 bucks or about 9+++% for your money....HELLO?????????????????..NO GOOD HUH?? NOT ENOUGH OF A KICK??? BEATS THE HELL OUT OF YOUR SAVINGS ACCOUNTS, YOUR CD'S...AND THERE'S A TON MORE STOCKS LIKE THESE OUT THERE..FIND THEM AND LET ME KNOW SO I CAN CHECK THEM OUT FOR US ALL...
So anyway what i'm thinking here is we continue to correct, pulling back toward my downside targets on all the indexs, and then base build for 1-2-3 weeks and then begin to rally into and ahead of this quarters earnings reports...I think the forward guidance will be BETTER than expected, and we should be in and holding for our swing and position type trades...I can already SEE the 2 sectors bottoming right then and there, then reversing back up below 30% in a BULL ALERT Status to present a serious, very serious buying opportunity for us all...I want us to IN those trades early waiting for the NEWS the upgrades and all of the Wall Street Wizards hailing the next coming of the BULL Market while we're in there laughing our you know whats off<G>..Let's be patient...no rush, do not anticipate...we wait for the bottom, then the reversal up..i'll get for us all...Let's look at the indexs
DJIA---STRONGEST OF ALL INDEXS SO FAR...BROKE A TRIPLE TOP AY 9950 TOUCHED 10050 AND THEN REVERSED BACK DOWN 3 NORMAL BOXES SO FAR...DOES IT MOVE LOWER THIS WEEK TO TEST 9550, OR?, DOES IT REVERSE BACK UP TO BREAK OUT AT 10,100...ONLY THE SHADOW KNOWS<G>..MY GUESS IS DOWN...THERE'S A NICE DOJI ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART TOO...
NAZ/COMPX---LOOKS VERY WEAK TO ME, IT'S GIVEN 3 CONSECUTIVE SELL SIGNALS IN A ROW LOWER BOTTOMS EACH TIME...1760 THE DOUBLE BOTTOM(DN) SELL SIGNAL...TEST 1640/1700...THERE'S A DOJI ON THE DAILY "UNDER" THE 20 EMA TOO...
NDX--VERY WEAK CHART, I'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS ONE FOR MONTHS..THE WEAKEST LINK OF THEM ALL...NOT GOOD FOR THE LONGS ON THE QQQ'S EITHER...THE P&F CHART PATTERN LOOKS LIKE DEATH AND DESTRUCTION "COULD " HAPPEN HERE QUICKLY...SO THIS INDEX RALLIES RIGHT UP TO MY TARGET AT 1500<G>, ROLLED OVER AND SOLD OFF DOWN TO 1440, THE NEXT SELL SIGNAL IS 1400..LOOKOUT BELOW ON THAT ONE FOLKS..TARGET 1320ISH...
ALSO DID A BACKSIDE BOUNCE UP AND INTO HEAVY R(RESISTANCE) AT THE 20 EMA DAILY CANDLE CHART..DOES EVERYONE UNDERSTAND WHAT A BACKSIDE BOUNCE IS??? IF NOT PLEASE BRING IT UP IN THE ROOM OR VIA E-MAIL TO ME..YOU "MUST" UNDERSTAND ALL THIS LONGO, BETWEEN POINT & FIGURE AND CANDLESTICKS..MUST!!!!!
QQQ'S---TOUCHED THE BSL THE SUPPORT LINE ON P&F..BUT THE CHART LOOKS WEAK TO ME TOO...I'D SHORT ALL RALLIES IN THIS INDEX...
SOX---THE ONLY INDEX STILL HOLDING WELL, AND THE BULLISH PERCENT CHART THE (BP) IS MOVING LOWER HERE AS WELL IN THE MID 30% AREA...IT'S GETTING OVERSOLD SOON LIKE THE BTK...WE WILL LEG INTO THIS GROUP AS THE SECTOR BP REVERSES UP...THE SMH WILL BE VERY SOLID TO OWN THEM...ANYWAY IF IT BREAKS 480 IT COULD GOP TO 420 THE BOTTOM...620 IS THE BREAKOUT BUY AREA, WHAT WITH 600 THE DT(DOUBLE TOP)...AND POTENTIAL SELLERS THERE...
SMH--BROKE A DT AT 46 AND HELD THE BSL LINE..THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE..THE UPTREND LINE..KAPISH? WE'LL WATCH THE SOX FOR DIRECTION IN THIS INDEX...I WILL OWN THIS SHORTLY...
BTK---IMPORTANT HERE...TRYING TO SHAPE UP FOLKS...ACTUALLY GAVE A BUY SIGNAL AT 520 LAST WEEK, SO THATS ENCOURAGING...A 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN IS AT 490 IT MUST HOLD 460...THE BPBIOM IS AT 35% ALSO LOOKING GOOD TOO, AND THE BBH RALLIED LAST WEEK UP AND INTO HEAVY R AT 122...ALL IN ALL THE SET UP FOR THIS SECTOR IS LOOKING VERY NICE...IF WE BOTTOM BY THE END OF THIS MONTH, WE COULD ENJOY A BIG TIME RIDE UP HERE WAY AHEAD OF THE MADDENING CROWD...HAHAHAHAHAHA..I LOVE THE MARKETS FOLKS...
VXN---VERY NEAR THE BRINK OF A BIG TRIPLE BOTTOM HERE WHICH IS BULLISH FOR THE MARKETS...WATCH AND SET ALERTS AT 42...46 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP WITH A POSSIBLE TEST OF 50/51 THE TOP AS A POSSIBILITY...
VIX---SAME SCENARIO,, HOLDING 22/23 FOR 2 MONTHS, A BOTTOM?, 26 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL UP, AND 21 A REAL BIG TIME BREAKDOWN THERE, BUT GOOD FOR THE LONG SIDE...WATCHING BOTH INDEXS...
NOW THE SPH2 THE FUTURES..THEY LOOK ABOUT THE SAME AS THE SPX...4 CONSECUTIVE LOWER TOPS HERE FOLKS..NEGATIVE FOR SURE...1140----1136---1128---1124---THE INDEX HAS REVERSED DOWN INTO A COL. OF O'S..WE COULD TEST 1080 1ST TARGET, OR WE COULD REVERSE BACK UP HERE TO 1116..I THINK WE TEST AND BREAK 1080 EASILY...THE 61.8% FULL RETRACE DOWN ON THIS INDEX IS AT 1033...I THINK 1050 WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK FIRST, A 50% RETRACE DOWN...SO WE WATCH, WE PLAY IT CAREFULLY, NO RUSH, BE CALM, RELAXED, AND TRADE SMART..DO NOT FIGHT THIS TREND...
OK STOCKS TO DAY & POSITION TRADE THIS UP COMING WEEK....
BRCM---I AM CURRENTLY SHORT THIS STOCK AT 35 3/4 AND WILL ADD TO THIS SHORT ON ANY RALLY UP, INCLUDING OPTIONS TOO...IT HAD A MAJOR BREAKDOWN LAST WEEK BELOW 36...BTL(BUY TRIGGER LONG IS 36 1/2, SST TRIGGER HERE IS 34.00...MY DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 29.. IF YOU BUY OPTIONS USE THE 40 PUTS OF MAY...
BRCD---I AM SHORT THIS STOCK TO AT 29.95...I WILL ADD TO THIS SS ON ANY RALLY THIS WEEK...INCLUDING OPTIONS...SAME SCENARIO AS ABOVE...THIS STOCK BROKE THE BSL LINE AT 30 GIVING THE 3RD CONSECUTIVE SELL SIGNAL WITH LOWER TOPS...31 THE BTL(BUY TRIGGER LONG)...28.95 THE SST(SHORT SALE TRIGGER)...1ST TARGET 23..THEN??? WOO HOO...<G>
CHKP---JUST COMPLETED A BEARISH CATAPULT FORMATION, LOOKS VERY WEAK..YOU CAN SHORT ALL RALLIES HERE...30.90 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...28 3/4 THE SST...
CYMI----ONE TOUGH COOKIE HUH...WELL WE'LL SEE...39 3/4 THE BTL...41 THE TRIPLE TOP R AREA...37 1/4 THE SST...I'LL TAKE THAT SHORT IF IT HAPPENS....SET ALERTS...QUICK TARGET 33...
GNSS---AMAZING HOW EVERY STOCK IS FALLING OUT OF BED, THE STRONGEST OF THE STRONG...45 3/4 THE BTL...43 THE SST, I'LL TAKE THE TRIGGER SHORT LOOKING FOR ANOTHER BIG BREAKDOWN TO ANOTHER TARGET OF 37...IT IS SITTING AT THE 200 ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC)..TIRED OF TYPING IT<G>...
EBAY---BACKSIDE BOUNCE INTO THE 40 EMA DAILY CANDLE CHART, WATCHING HERE...ACTUALLY BROKE A DOUBLE TOP(DT) LAST WEEK SHOWING RENEWED STRENGTH AT 60...BUT SOLD OFF FRIDAY QUICKLY...59 THE BTL 60/61 STILL R THERE...62 WOULD BE POSITIVE...57 3/4 THE SST... MAYBE TEST 54/55 AGAIN..
SEPR---VERY WEAK CHART AND STOCK, AS YOU KNOW I'VE BEEN SHORTING THIS ONE FOR WEEKS ON ALL RALLIES..NOTHING HAS CHANGED..JUST REVERSED BACK DOWN OFF A NICE RUN UP DURING THE RECENT RALLY...WHAT A GREAT LOOKING SYMMETRICAL P&F CHART TOO..BOTTOM TARGET IS 30...38 3/4 THE VERY GOOD SST(SHORT SALE TRIGGER)....40.90 THE BTL(BUY TRIGGER LONG)...
CCMP---IN THE CHEMICAL SECTOR WHICH JUST REVERSED UP HERE...HOWEVER WITH THE COMING CONTINUED PULLBACK MAYBE WE GET THIS HIGH FLYER A BIT CHEAPER EH?...<G>...59 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG(BTL)...57 1/4 THE SST...52 THE ULTIMATE TARGET...
EMLX----UH OH..SECOND SELL SIGNAL IN ONE OF THE BEST OF THE BEST..NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR WEAKER STOCKS FOLKS..COMPRENDE'?...38 THE SST...IT WON'T GO EASY INTO THE NIGHT...40.90 THE BTL YOU MUST WAIT FOR THIS NUMBER...
QLGC--ONE OF MY FAV'S...BROKE OUT OF A RISING WEDGE LAST WEEK AFTER RALLYING UP FOR 3 DAYS STRAIGHT...THE STOCK IS A VERY CRITICAL JUNCTURE HERE EVERYONE...THIS ONE COULD BE A DOOZIE SHORT..I SAID COULD BE...HERE'S THE SCENARIO...SO FAR IT'S HELD THE BSL...THIS IS THE UPTRENDLINE WE CALL THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE ON P&F...ANY BREAK OF THIS LINE DOWN COULD BE A SWELL<VBG> SS...44 3/4 THE SST WITH A BREAK OF 42 ONE GREAT SWING TRADE SS...THATS A BIG BREAKDOWN AREA...DID I SAY BIG?????...47 THE BTL WITH 48 ANOTHER LOWER TOP..I'LL TRADE THIS ONE FOR SURE...
NVDA---CRASHED AND BURNED ON ACCOUNTING NEWS...CHART STILL LOOKS POTENTIALLY WEAK...56 THE SST...55 A DB(DOUBLE BOTTOM) BREAKDOWN TOO SO STAY SHORT...58 1/2 THE BTL...60 IS THE NORMAL 3 BOX REV BACK UP HERE...
VRSN---WE ALL MADE SOLID MONEY ON THIS SHORT WEEKS AGO...JUST NO BUYERS FOR THE STOCK...24 THE SST...21 YET ANOTHER DB BREAKDOWN STAY SS...26 1/2 THE BTL...
SEBL---TRYING TO HANG IN THERE..A STRONGER CHART...34 THE BTL...31 3/4 THE SST..WITH ANY BREAK OF31/30 YOU STAY SHORT...
QCOM---ANOTHER BACKSIDE BOUNCE UP AND INTO HEAVY R O/H(OVERHEAD) INTO THE DESCENDING 20 EMA ON THE DAILY...LOTS OF SELLER THERE FOLKS...36 1/4 THE SST...34 KEEPS YOU SHORT ALL THE WAY...38 1/2 THE BTL..3 BOX REVR BACK UP IS 40...
MYGN---THIS BIO TECH IS TRYING TO BASE BUILD HERE...IT SHOWED SOME GOOD SOLID SUPPORT THE KEY WAS IT BROKE THRU THE BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE..THE DOWN TRENDING LINE ON P&F..THE BRL....THEN PULLED BACK NORMALLY...45 1/2 THE BTL...MAYBE TEST 48 AGAIN...I LIKE THIS STOCK AFTER WE PULLBACK..THE BIO'S WILL BE READY FOR FREDDY<G>...43 THE SST...
IDPH---I HAVE POUNDED THE TABLE TO SHORT THIS STOCK ON ALL RALLIES FROM WELL ABOVE CURRENT LEVELS...JUST COMPLETED A BACKSIDE BOUNCE HERE...HOWEVER WHAT WITH THE SECTOR BEGINNING TO FIRM...WE MAY CATCH THE NEXT RIDE UP, NOT DOWN AS MUCH...60 1/2 THE BTL..WAIT FOR IT FOLKS...61 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL IN TREND UP WITH HEAVY R AT 62, 63 THE GOOD BUY SIGNAL THERE...57 1/2 THE SST...
GENZ--ONE OF OUR LEAP CALLS OF JAN 2003, I HOPE YOU'RE JUST DOLLAR COST AVERAGING IN HERE EACH MONTH..BOTTOMED AT 39/40 AREA AND RALLIED UP VERY NICELY...THIS IS A BUY ON PULLBACK TYPE STOCK...THERE'S A VERY NICE SST AT 44 1/2 I'D WAIT FOR IT...AND A NICE BTL AT 47 14/..THE MARKETS DIRECTION WILL TELL YOU WHICH WAY TO GO...
GILD---THIS STOCK IS TRYING TO HOLD HERE..BASING FOR A LONG TIME SIDEWAYS...66 3/4 THE BTL...64 1/2 THE VERY GOOD SST...MIGHT TEST 62 AGAIN IF THE MARKET PULLSBACK THIS WEEK AS EXPECTED..
IVGN---ONE CLASSIC DOWNTRENDING CHART...IT TRIED TO RALLY UP AND INTO HEAVY R AT THE BRL LINE AND THE 40 EMA DAILY..SELLERS DOVE ON THIS ONE..HOPE YOU GOT IT LONG/SHORT LAST WEEK...THIS IS WHAT I SAID LAST WEEK BEFORE I WENT AWAY...I QUOTE...
IVGN--ANOTHER LOSER HERE..WEAK STILL...50 1/2 THE SST WAIT FOR IT...52 3/4 THE BTL...A GOOD ONE TOO..REMEMBER I AM LOOKING FOR A TECHNICAL BOUNCE HERE..TO SHORT LATER NEXT WEEK...
SO YOU COULD HAVE TAKEN IT LONG UP AND INTO R, THEN HIT IT RIGHT THERE..THIS IS THE WAY TO PLAY "BOTH" SIDES OF THE MARKETS FOLKS...
SO 52 IS THE SST FOR IVGN...A 50 PRINT STAY SHORT...54 1/4 THE BTL...
AFFX---PERFECT DOWNTREDNING CHART HERE..VERY SYMMETRICAL...25 1/2 THE SST...27 3/4 THE BTL...
LET'S TALK BRIEFLY ABOUT SECTORS HERE...WE ARE GETTING OVERSOLD ON THE BIO'S AND SEMIS...NOT READY TO BUY JUST YET..THE OIL & OIL SERVICE SECTOR HAS REVERSED UP AS HAS THE CHEMICALS...GOLD SECTOR IS WAY WAY OVERBOUGHT HERE, AS ARE THE FINANCIALS AND BANKS...YOU KNOW THE DRILL, SELL OR WRITE COVERED CALLS ON YOUR BACK/FINANCIAL.GOLD STOCKS, OR JUST SELL THEM OUTRIGHT...AND LOOK FOR VALUE IN THE OIL SECTOR...THE GAMING STOCKS ARE SELLING OFF TOO..NEGATIVE FOR THEM...
SLB----GIANT BREAKOUT AT 57, TAKE THAT TRADE...
SII---COULD BUY 1/2 POSITION THIS WEEK, AND MORE ON A PULLBACK..
PTEN---HERE'S A BEAUTY FOLKS...NICE DEVELOPING CHART..REMEMBER YOU CAN USE OPTIONS TOO..SAY 3 MONTH OUT THERE WITH IN THE MONIES...YOU COULD BUY THE MAY/JUNE 20'S OR 22 1/.2 CALLS AND LOOK FOR A NICE RUN UP AND NEAR 30ISH...23 THE DOUBLE TOP BUY SIGNAL...
OK THATS IT FOR THIS WEEK...IT'SICE TO BE HOME, BUT BOY I WISH I COULD DO THIS AGAIN SOON<G>...
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE INTERESTING...CYCLE LOWS COMING ALA CARPINO...THE END OF THE WEEK...WE'LL SEE..NOTHING WRITTEN IN STONE..
SEE YOU IN THE ROOM
BEST ALWAYS
JERRY
Jerry Olson
Master Class Trader
jerry.olson@verizon.net
www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com |
