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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (32113)	2/22/2002 8:26:30 AM
From: James Calladine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

JNPR COMMENTS (from another thread) From: Rich Wolf Friday, Feb 22, 2002 2:07 AM <<<Thanks for the article. My reading suggests that IP with MPLS can attain the needed QoS for voice transmission, thus eliminating the need for more expensive and bandwidth-limiting ATM switching technology. That being said, who's using IP/MPLS right now for their backbones? Mostly LVLT. They will also survive as a company, though they may flush the stock/company through BK to wipe out debt, sometime in the 1-2 year timeframe unless their revenues keep falling in the near term as they have. I had read that LVLT worked the MPLS route with JNPR using the Martini draft for MPLS (he works for them)... so though it is not standardized, who cares? They control it end to end, and JNPR implemented, so if it needs mods it's no big deal. Meanwhile the MPLS standards committee may muck around for a while. CSCO and others all have their own approaches. So it was indeed interesting to follow the wake of that big ship known as 'T' when they decided to use the old SONET for their metro networks, and buy the CSCO gear. They do like the tried and true, don't they? It won't help JNPR (or LVLT or whomever) to be 'right' if they are early and thus broke (or beaten down) by the time they are proven right. It is the customer that is right, and it all depends on what the customers want. It is thus significant that the customers of note are mostly the original RBOCs, and mostly now for metro rather than core routers. The use of SONET by T for metro is a downer. The BLS news about capex cuts was a canary, we await VZ and SBC guidance. And Q? fughedaboudit. Capex guidance at 50% of what they previously said, for '02... and they're probably just wishin' and hopin' that it all works out for them, still. Murky, very murky. Was in Junnie after the yank to 13, now out and watching... might be a comeback play in 6 months (aside from DCBs in between), or I might get a chance to average in in the 7ish area. Upside seems a few Qs away, and the street seems to be reading it the same. JNPR's customers in question, all technology aside. With European economic slowdown following in the US wake by a few Qs, it won't get better anywhere else first other than the ol USofA... and we may not have really hit bottom... or it may not rebound much for some time yet... bounce, scrape, bounce, you know. Double digits on JNPR is based on rev growth. Won't see that this CY. My bet. Tough nut. Good thing they have cash. They'll need it. But stock? Down for the count, for some time. Street sees 'dead money.' Mo-mo is dead, you heard, right? Big gap between where mo-mo punches out at a loss and where value steps in to buy. BIG gap. Being defined, if not filled, as we speak. >>> Namaste! Jim