To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (13995 ) 2/22/2002 12:37:45 PM From: Bob Rudd Respond to Wayne: <<didn't have a full grasp of the situation.>>I just started looking at it and I just can't get a feel for how likely it is to completely slide down the tubes. Merrill has it a neutral with a low confidence [no confidence] estimate of 02 .80; 03 1.00 they just brought down. The AM Best downgrades affect their prospects going forward and there are debt covenents to be renegotiated. My interest is peaked since being kicked out of an Index often drives stuff way below fair value. I'm willing to bet on these situations, but only if I have at least some sort of feel for the business. I can't even come to that with this. The insurance business is so squishy, with estimates all over the place for losses, reserves and so forth, unless you really trust management, it's like trying to nail jello to the wall to figure what it's worth...especially with a lot of credit uncertainty and a weak balance sheet. thestreet.com
