To: robbie_nw who wrote (32358 ) 2/22/2002 2:01:14 PM From: Rich Wolf Respond to JNPR - I think it depends on your time horizon. The stock could get bought up to 10 on an unexpected broad market rally, but... They are needing to transition their business from core to metro. They only sell to SPs, not to the enterprise. Didn't lose mkt share to CSCO in that sector (if you want to short the company, be sure to be clear on the facts), they lost 'share' only in terms of total 'core' routers sold... CSCO made it up on the enterprise side, not on the SP side. But if JNPR really wants growth they will have to give up that position and try to find products to sell to the enterprise. Philosophic digression: Interesting debate on whether network 'intelligence' (and there's likely more than one type) will reside at core or on edge. I think the edge. Then question becomes, on the SP side or the enterprise side of the 'edge'? Meanwhile, this points out that the growth in all router business for both JNPR and CSCO will be in the metro/edge product offerings. Both have admitted metro market is the driver. Notable that T just gave contract to CSCO for metro biz, not JNPR, as T is staying with SONET and not going to IP (showing usual penchant to use current or last-gen 'proven' technologies, esp when can get better pricing on the products?). Overall, I think JNPR will be in hunker down mode until the SPs come back with increased capex, and the cuts by Q, WCOM, and now BLS etc do not help. Net: I think there is more downside to the JNPR move, as it will be a few Qs before revs come back to life (notwithstanding announcement of the 'Gibson' router within a Q from now). Only some mo-mo funds would get the stock up in the face of flat revs currently. You may want to hedge, JNPR has had a big move down and may rebound technically, but before the year is out it would not surprise me to see JNPR broken below 8, maybe to 7. Then 'value' investors would take a hard look, if they really think the business would come back to JNPR in time. All IMHO.
