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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TWICK who wrote (10722)	2/22/2002 2:39:01 PM
From: David Howe	Respond to of 19219

<< Who says the bull will come back any time soon after the last sheep is slaughtered. Don't understand the logic. >> A large part of our population is in their peak earning years and will be for another decade. There's huge amounts of money looking for a home. Once the pigs are slaughtered the speculation money will have been wrung out. The market will then attract long term investors looking for a place to put their cash. Bonds at 4% Cash at 2% Stocks at ?% Much of the money will decide that equities are a reasonable bet and the next bull market will begin. The pigs are almost entirely slaughtered at this point. We're close to a bottom. It might take a year or more for the next bull to become clearly evident, but it will come eventually. IMO, Dave

To: TWICK who wrote (10722)	2/22/2002 7:35:25 PM
From: TraderXx	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Twick..you sure your name shouldn't be "Half-Twick"? <<gg>> TraderXx

To: TWICK who wrote (10722)	2/22/2002 10:50:05 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 19219

Who says the bull will come back any time soon after the last sheep is slaughtered<<< dood that's exactly when it will come back, the p/c ratios and rydex ratios are giving indications that the sheep are being slaughtered in this downtrend, at some point this will reverse, you make a lot of money spotting early reversals in the trend, you lose a lot of money being early at reversals in the trend =g=

To: TWICK who wrote (10722)	2/24/2002 4:26:51 PM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

If you destroy something, what makes it come right back ? Japan's bubble was decimated. Now 10+ years later and there is still no "Big" rally. Still no recovery in sight. They're all sitting on tons of cash, and gold, but they're not buying stocks. Why is that ? Did they lose faith in the markets, in their banks, and big companies ? Are they afraid to lose what they know is safe for now ? And we, over here, are still telling ourselfs that things are not like it is in Japan. Of course not. This recession will be over this year. Bullshit. Don't compare japan with USA (yet), problem with Japan leading into 1989-1990 peak was; 1)too many years of uninterupted growth 2)Real Estate bubble where property was bought on speculation 3)Equity bubble same as RE 4)Crossownership of Equity between banks and their customers 5)Excess capacity and Inability of banking system to deal with bad loans. Result is the sick are on life support and spreading their desease to the healthy. Also they have a big problem with deflation and govt debit at 160% of GDP. Now Japanese consumer is afraid to spend because of shitty rate of return, fear that he needs to save more to survive in future and because prices are comming down (weakening of Yen may shoot that), however this dismal rate of return (in country where savings rate is >15%) is creating lack of confidence in Yen. This could create a currency crisis within whole region as other Asean economies seek to preserve their "competitiveness" with Japan. This is helping spur gold demand. Japanese are desperate and talking about inflation not being so bad (compared to deflation and conrtaction of economy). Very dangerous, as if inflation takes hold in Japan it will ultimatly be reflected in lending rate. with japans huge debit, ( i think debit service is up to 36% of govt expenditures), currency could eventually implode. Japan is exact opposite of USA on finance side. In the USA govt has been retiring debit (net savings), however in Japan, the individual saves and govt goes into hock. m