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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: arun gera who wrote (114059)	2/22/2002 3:38:24 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Did the market predict in 1990 that Microsoft in 2000 will be living off their Microsoft Office product? No. Actually in 1990, if you tried to sell any of the tech stocks, including Microsoft (as a broker, for instance), only your mother would buy a few shares from you, out of sympathy for you. But now, you can't drive away tech stock fans even with a big stick! That should tell you something...

To: arun gera who wrote (114059)	2/22/2002 3:56:03 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 152472

arun - As to Microsoft and Office... Have you read the book "Big Blues"? I believe it was published in 1993. Close enough to your 1990. The strategy by which Microsoft captured the PC market and would be successful in the future was well understood, actually. And the importance of MS Office (or more precisely, its equivalents) was not at all understated. Microsoft's strategy is one of end-user lock and pull through. Very simple. Crushing in its completeness and naturally compelling in the self-sealing network effects. And, as an aside, CDMA does not have that same attribute. Ask the person on the street in the US: do you prefer CDMA or TDMA or GSM? And the vast majority will wish you had asked a different question. Except in Europe. Where the answer is obvious. Therein lies a hint of the future, or Qualcomm's requisite strategic gap to close IMHO. Because the customer is always right. As to looking into the future with perfect prescience? No, none of us can do that. We can however look around us and observe what is and what has been, and extrapolate that with some degree of confidence into the near future. Those who would pin their hopes on BREW or CDMA penetration are doing no less the same.