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To: NOW who wrote (153004)	2/23/2002 8:02:59 AM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Semi Biz. Interesting page on AMAT's site showing where the new business is going. The right time to invest is during the downturn, of course, as it take years to get new processes up and running from scratch. (see pie chart of where new equipment is selling) appliedmaterials.com Looks like the price of USA and European semi professionals is coming down. I think perhaps I should take a course in Chinese, or maybe even Russian? The last four or so semi downturns put the semi equipment business though major layoffs, shutdowns and consolidation. There are very few companies left and new technology means the newer machines have literally skyrocketed in development and manufacturing costs. The dimensions of semiconductor transistors are < 0.13 microns. This is below the wavelength of visible light. You cannot even see what's going on even with the most powerful optical microscope!! You need an electron microscope. In the 1970's a lithography tool would weigh about 100 lbs or so. One person could pick it up. Have a look at the latest 5500 series asml.com or it's bigger brother... asml.com Costs have gone up by a factor of 100 since the 1980's Big costs = big gambles = spectacular crashes. The other point is brand new wafer fabs will be selling for cents on the dollar if the usual belly up failures occur that are normal at the bottom of a semi business cycle. 1998 was real bad, there were some spectacular crashes... nop.members.beeb.net As far as new business is concerned it is there. Small orders are coming in, perhaps enough to sustain a business, but no one has "visibility". Another point about the business. Those with "in house" Fabs will actually survive better as they have lower costs then the fabless plus foundry combination. OK a "fabless company" has much lower costs then the ones that carry an "in house" fab, but the foundries are stuck out in the deep freezer for business during the bad times. It will be interesting how each player in the semi biz decides how to deal with the next round of musical chairs when the music stops. I think in this round there will be more then 1 chair subtracted. All imho of course.