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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (32579)	2/22/2002 10:01:49 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev: I think we have seen the massive DJX put buying scheme before at least twice. Maybe someone can get a handle on the dates. But if my memory is correct, we faced rallies in the Dow subsequent to this ploy. It was speculated at the time, I think, that the powers were hedging against an intended fireworks display which, of course, failed miserably.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (32579)	2/22/2002 10:18:52 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, it seems this bear has taught us a less or two. As bad as we think it is, it can always get worse. I remember last year the April low, which was late, was about 230 points lower than you originally expected when prognosticating in late February. Those are the kinds of things are what make this a murderous market. The fact that there has been no real buying, only short covering, tells us there is no confidence in the current market valuation. Furthermore, bounces are getting weaker and weaker. We can't even muster a 50% re-trace on a bounce, and that is telling. Today we went through NDX 1333 like butter, and that number had stopped us 3-times in October, once two days in a row. The "bounce", if you can call it that, from "support" today was anemic at best. Trendlines were established and broken all day long with no clear trend set all day long. That is not the sign of a healthy market. Furthermore, we breached a major support line intra-day, which is something we had not done yet since January. We closed above it, but the breach is another sign that the market is not playing by the old rules anymore. The VIX and VXN are at levels consistent with what we saw last Feb going into March. One thing that is absent is the rallies to the middle Bollinger Band. We have been stopping at the 10-day EMA (except for options exp), which also shows weakness compared with even last Feb's drop. Anyway, the Wednesday after options expiration has often times been a good time for a bottom, so March 20th is one date we can mark down on our calendars. Mark to market is also going to be in full force, so we can also watch for further erosion in the end of March. I believe there are also cycle dates around the end of March also. Anyway, this will be the 3rd major bottom I'll be experiencing with those on this board, and I'm sure we will all contribute our insights so we can beat the market and profit handsomely.