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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (32581)	2/23/2002 6:57:53 AM
From: limtex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

ZH - The economy is probably going to register only one negative GDP quarter, that negative growth (and the profit recession) was "forecasted" by last year's bear market and the current recovery was forecasted by the spectacular 20% plus rise in the Dow and 50% rise in the Naz from the September lows. Now, the current decline is trying to look some six plus months down the road to possible instabilities in the mid-east and the second dip in the recession, just as suggested in my December 29th After your brilliant call on SNDKs numbers about a year and a bit ago I promised never to dispute you again. But it is a bit hard to see a spike of a few weeks however large as the market doing anything else other than reacting to the overeaction to the mass murder in New York and Washington. The massive drop after 9-11 was understandble as we look back now and reflect on the sheer horror of those events. What may not have been clear then indeed only became really clear after the MSFT CEO said what he did about the prospects for this year. We also had INTC, IBM and CSCO and amny other biggies and smallies. There have been a small number of positive outlooks but they are abberant. The point is that there is no recovery, and all those who ought ot really know something about that ie the names I mentioned above seem to think there is no recovery in sight. As for the Middle East well I predict that there will be trouble in the Middle East from now to eternity. There has never been a time that there wasn't trouble in the Middle East. Actually so far as that is concerned the Civilized World is probably a little better off today than a few years ago. Still back to economy. "Double Dip" what double dip, we're still in the first dip. So far as I've seen the biggies and the economy generally hasn't seen any recovery in the first dip so thee isn't any 2nd dip. The market should anticipate a recovery and it isn't and it hasn't it is just continuing doing the same as it has for the last two years and its now heaaded into a third straight year of it. I'm not sure where it all leads to but wherever that is isn't very nice and it doesn't have much room for normal retirement nor for capitla markets nor for growth of new tech industries which provide the growth of the economy. In short all the intrest rate cuts have failed to jump start the economy and so it nowhas no continuing thrust behind it. In this state without a good catalyst its avtivity will decay and the markte will continue on its steady decline with the daily thread comments about 'retesting lows' and 'can't recover till there is a real blow-off crash' and the one I love best 'there isn't enough fear'. Even if all thiese thigns were present how would that have any effect on the qtly revenues of MSFT, INTC CSCO IBM or any of the myriad of companies that make up the economy. Those sayings are total unadulterated crap. All that counts is business. When business improves so will the economy and so will the market. Until it does the market will continue to collapse. Best, L