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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chowder who wrote (6933)	2/23/2002 10:40:57 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Respond to of 206104

DB, You have made some great calls, but I still think in the patch its tough to set up a 100% SHORT after we get a reversal. Here is my example, in the week of 2/4-2/7 we had a short signal on the OSX. Loooking at the chart if you shorted the morning of 2/7 or 2/8 you would have been part of a painful reversal. This is my point, all signals except OVERBOUGHT were showing up on many OSX stocks that thursday and Friday. Late in the day we had a reversal in crude on friday short covering, and that was also the reversal in the OSX. Look at TDW for those same days, it would have been a great short on that Friday morning, but you would be underwater from that 2/8, 33 price to yesterdays 37.5. The only way to short the OSX for a good entry is to find an overbought area and enter a portion of your postion. DB, if we do reverse it will be quick for first 10-12%. Also crude was only up 15cents yeterday, so OSX may be at 86 sooner then even I thought. I wanted to short NBR yesterday, but held off waiting for tuesdays API. Thanks..

To: chowder who wrote (6933)	2/23/2002 7:51:06 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Respond to of 206104

Greenie, DB: Here is my conclusion: listen to DB. Print out DB's statement and tape on your bathroom mirror. "Because we don't know how quickly it will do so. We don't know how badly we can be whip-sawed. We don't know that these energy stocks won't run higher before they fall. It's not any different than it was for the homeboys." The patterns we see in the OSX stocks are very similar to the builders' patterns, and the arguments supporting the cyclical top here ("well, here's where it SHOULD be, I see a double camel top, it's just too dang expensive, nothing under these values but war premium & air") have only one problem connected with them. The stock prices (which is all we should care about) won't reverse until they reverse. For NBR it could well be $35 or 36, or it could run up to $40 or 41. Ask yourself one question, say it real slow and Clint Eastwoodish: Do you feel lucky, well, do ya? And which is better to short NBR at $34 with no reversal in sight and hope you're right, watch it run up to $38, reverse and then fall back down to $31 and escape with a $3 profit, or simply await the reversal and short it when it's falling (with a little bit o luck at $37 or $36) and cover it at $31? We want to sell high and buy low, not sell medium, experience a conniption or two as it goes high, then pray to the Market Gods that it will find a low. Kb