To: S100 who wrote (114138 ) 2/23/2002 10:38:28 PM From: Keith Feral Respond to of 152472 Commoditizing wireless? Wireless will be the most significant development of this century. Wireless services will put stand-alone long distance companies, dsl providers, & dial up isp providers out of business in the next 5 years. I won't be using any dial up services in 6 to 12 months, except for cable. That may be out the door in 24 months with 1xEV DO wireless cable. The reason that Verizon, Bell South, and SBC won't take any additional debt to consolidate the industry is that they completely dominate the fiber and spectrum. They dominate the resources they need to control all communications. They are pulling the plug on all liquidity within telecom to drive out the Enron style trading partners that have cannibalized the pricing structure of telecom. The Baby Bell companies are shifting from local phone companies to local, long distance, and wireless mega providers. Now that they control all of the communication services in their respective regions, telecom will return to it's natural position as an oligopoly in the US. We are quickly seeing all the second and third tier companies completely disappear with no resistance. I think the key reason that the trading companies in telecom can no longer maintain an adequate facade is they cannot gain access to wireless spectrum. Without these revenues, their financial models have become worthless. Free market policy is demolishing the telecom players that never should have been there in the first place. Government policies irrationally directed Baby Bells to sell excess capacity to smaller telecom companies. Now that capital support has been withdrawn for these Enron style trading practices, no one is going to provide liquidity for Baby Bell wannabes. The industry realizes that the excess resources that have committed to concepts like reselling communications will be wiped out. The death of competition within the trading markets for energy and telecom provides the base for long term economic improvements. Of course, the market has probably not quite squeezed all the weak players out of either industry yet. 12 months from now, we will be complaining as consumers as the prices for utility and communication services begin to rise. One thing is for certain. In the new era of 3G voice and data, the telecom companies will learn how to charge for data. However, the new charges will be realized from the shitft in ISP bills like AOL being shifted to your phone bill. I would be very happy to pay a single fee for my voice and data services going through the same networks. It would save me the hassle of paying extra taxes, 911 fees, and all the other hidden fees on our phone bills. I think that 3G will have a much quicker impact on communications than most think as consumers consolidate all of their wireless & wireline communications onto a single high speed voice and data account. The constraints of spectrum will certainly block any access for "trading companies" to buy and sell wireless capacity for profit. They are finally out of their league.