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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (32693)	2/23/2002 4:07:10 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Respond to of 99280

Is it different this time? History repeats, first as tragedy, then as farce.

To: mishedlo who wrote (32693)	2/23/2002 7:50:35 PM
From: ChrisJP	Respond to of 99280

Hey mish -- I think it could be different this time. Just maybe. The wild card, IMO is Japan. If they devalue or whatever, then it will double dip us. Regarding debt -- let me tell you why that's not a problem. Do you know who's gonna pay off our debts ? People over 70 -- that's who. The richest segment of our population. When they die and the debt ridden baby boomers inherit their wealth. I don't know how much they're worth vs. how much non-mortgage consumer debt we have, so maybe someone can find that out. Regards, Chris

To: mishedlo who wrote (32693)	2/23/2002 11:46:54 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Wow, nice post, Mish. You put a lot of thought into that. As for the housing bubble, I look at Home Depot and Lowes and I see two retailers who are building stores like only one of them will survive. I think we'll see HD closing 250-stores in a couple of years. Their stock is a bubble. A large percentage of their profit comes from free merchandise from new store openings. Stop the expansion, and a huge profit center disappears.

To: mishedlo who wrote (32693)	2/24/2002 9:02:45 AM
From: deathandtaxes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Mish actually it is different this time but for the worse. Most recessions are first caused by the consumer (first dip)then manufacturing begins by reducing inventories created by the less demand as well as unneeded capex spending(second dip). This recession has been started by manufacturing first with the second dip expected to be coming from the consumer. Somewhat of a role reversal. The big question is "If a consumer slowdown has a cause/effect with manufacturing production will the upcoming deceleration from the consumer give us another leg down in manufacturing?" It is a possibility that we could end up with a triple dip?