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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (32748)	2/23/2002 9:41:48 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

i am the voice of doom on this thread i don't buy bounces That explains why you go by "itsallover". I think you are right, FWIW. We have not hit the panic stage yet...give it a week or two. The 1998 October fear was at the fund manager level as they sold or held back buying and raised cash, concerned about redemptions. These redemptions just did not happen as expected. Individuals were still buying the dips at that stage; it was just a great buying opportunity and no one cared about the international reasons for the concerns. The mania was just picking up steam at that time. This time, it is a different game altogether. They may be reacting to individuals rather than selling stock to build up contingencies in case of redemptions. Now, managers are seeing the capital outflows and therefore raise more cash..leading to more redemptions...leading to more selling. It can be a vicious cycle this time around. I am not even looking for a successful retest of September lows. If it gets there, I believe it will break through to about 1100 to 1200. There won't be many buyers to hold it up at the Sept lows. I have seen a couple of the big conservative funds sitting on huge cash positions-18%. (american funds) These seem to be the exceptions. Others I sampled seem to have been fully invested by year end (or was it Jan 31?--don't recall). What happens if there is a run on the tech funds and investors keep putting money into "safe" funds within the same fund family? Tech managers get forced to sell stocks but the value managers will not use up that cash imediately..especially to buy technology as these stocks are too far away from meeting value criterea. This may be critical. jmho