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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pls418 who wrote (12647)	2/24/2002 4:16:24 AM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

I could be wrong of course, but the intermediate indicators that I follow tell me that the bottom is not yet upon us. I've guessed on several occasions in the past few weeks that the NASDAQ selloff is but a few days off, each prediction being followed by relief-valve buying. NASDAQ appears in a death spiral, I will be buying when the VIX et. al. indicates that the time is right. On the other hand, let's say I blew it and this past Friday saw the Nasdaq low. If thats the case, I will do a little tech buying using crossover signals. Last summer, I started buying tech early and my port dipped to -42% YTD by late September. I swore I would never let that happen again. I set some downside port limits beyond which I did not want to go. One of those limits is nearing, so I chose to lighten up on telecom eqmt. Regarding the ARMS index, I am beginning to lean toward a failure in that venerable indicator. I am thinking that extremely high selling volume in a handful of stocks over a period of a few weeks has produced the 1.5 reading back in late Jan.. The "rest of the market" has experienced selling, but not the extreme selling that would typically be associated with a 1.5 ARMS Index, 35 VIX, -100 MacLellan Oscillator. etc.. In defense of the ARMS Index, it hasn't failed yet. The DOW did produce a bottom in the low 9600's, as I mentioned previously. However, there is still no evidence that an intermediate bull run is upon us. And while the DOW is hanging around, the NASDAQ is dying on the vine. If I were to guess, I'd say the NASDAQ will continue down and bottom with the next week to 5 weeks. Anybodys guess with the DOW. Warp