Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RR who wrote (47971)	2/24/2002 5:23:57 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Congress to Press Greenspan on Recession Sun Feb 24,11:54 AM ET By Glenn Somerville WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy's vital signs are improving and when Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) delivers his economic diagnosis before Congress this week, lawmakers are likely to press the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) chairman to declare the recession dead. Analysts predict the Fed chief will be characteristically cautious at Wednesday's appearance before the Financial Services Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives, but will acknowledge his outlook has shifted. "Fundamentally, he's going to have to address the issue of is the recession over," said Robert Dederick, economic consultant to Northern Trust Co. in Chicago. "While he may not want to commit himself explicitly, he may at least repeat that we are in process of turning the corner." Those were the words the Fed chief used in January when lawmakers last asked him where the U.S. economy, in recession since March, stood. Recent data show relatively robust consumer spending and rapid liquidation of overstocked inventories -- developments that argue for a stronger rebound from recession than expected. Several Bush administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, have in the past couple of weeks said the economy is on the road to recovery. Now investors are focusing on the next big question. RECOVERY NOW THE ISSUE "So now we're going to get to the question of how vigorous will be the recovery -- that really seems to be the big issue right now," Dederick said. Greenspan's appearance will be the economic highlight of next week, the first leg of a two-step process in which he presents his semi-annual economic outlook to House and Senate lawmakers and submits to questioning. The past six months have been tumultuous, punctuated by the Sept. 11 attacks against the World Trade Center and the Pentagon (news - web sites) that shocked the economy into a virtual standstill for a week or more afterward. Throughout 2001, the Fed maintained an aggressive interest-rate cutting campaign that brought short term rates down in 11 stages to their lowest in 40 years. The Fed funds rate stood at 1.75 percent by the end of the year and Fed policymakers kept it at that level at the conclusion of their last rate-setting session on Jan. 30. Greenspan has begun slowly moving toward a more optimistic assessment of future prospects. In his most recent congressional testimony before the Senate Budget Committee last month, he dropped an earlier reference to "significant risks" and said the economy was starting to turn. "We are just at this particular point turning, as best I can judge," Greenspan said then. Government data since have shown inventories were drawn down at a record pace in 2001's final quarter and that factory orders have begun to pick up. Analysts say the Fed chief will keep his enthusiasm in check. "I think he'll carry on with the same type of thing we heard in January -- that we've got firming economic conditions but continuing concerns regarding the sustainability of a recovery," said economist Gary Thayer of A.G. Edwards and Sons Inc. in St. Louis, Missouri. TO GATHER STEAM SLOWLY Most forecasters are calling for a relatively slow-paced recovery early in the year, gathering steam as the year wears on. If so, any signals Greenspan gives about interest rates are likely to hint of a period of stability rather than a swing toward rate rises since prices remain in check. "His message will be more upbeat that it was at the start of the year, but it isn't likely to provide many clues about when the Fed will consider tightening," said economist James Glassman of J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. in New York. The questions from lawmakers are sometimes free-wheeling, often aimed at eliciting an opinion from Greenspan that might be turned to political advantage. The Fed chief said in January that he doubted economic stimulus measures -- still being pushed by the Bush administration -- were needed but the topic could easily arise again. "I do not think it is a critically important issue -- I think the economy will recover in any event," Greenspan said last month when asked about a stalled stimulus package. One potential question for the Fed chairman, who turns 76 next month, seemed to be put to rest this week when a White House official said that, contrary to market rumors, Greenspan wasn't likely to retire before his term ends in two years. "I think he's a man of robust health who has no intention of going anywhere," said economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey.

To: RR who wrote (47971)	2/24/2002 11:42:55 PM
From: RR	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

Hope everyone had a great weekend! Whew, my ole body is tired. Burned the hillside all weekend long. Still have piles and piles and piles of leaves smoking up the countryside. Think I've taken a whole bottle of Advil this weekend..... ugh. Well, let's see what the ole market does this week. Last week I was down in Texas and then Colorado (missed ya by a few days, Scott) and wasn't really able to watch the screen much. I'll be able to watch it more this week until Thursday, then off to Wash D.C. This week ought to be something to see with the market and the concerns about the Naz. Watch the Dow. How long can it hold? May be time to look at puts on the OEX and SPX. Will sit on my hands probably tomorrow. Especially with the market uncertainties, it's worth saying again,and that is you must have a plan. You can't just go into the day and shoot from the hip. That will get you clobbered trading in this market. Set your plan. Think what you will do under different scenarios. Stay with it and execute. Be aggressive but have patience. Have a great week all! RR