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Technology Stocks : Leap Wireless International (LWIN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (1525)	2/24/2002 3:01:45 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 2737

Raymond, you'll really have to improve your apostrophe's if you want to get into the CDMA world. <...you are genuinely deluded about LEAP's shareholders eventual prospects.> <Past being prologue, I'll remind you of your unbridled enthusiasm for Globalstar not that long ago> Raymond, you obviously didn't follow the Globalstar discussions very closely at all or you'd have seen a sell warning from me [about 4 years ago] and a bridled refrain that their business plan was dodgy at best. I was warning that it was dodgy for years with my pricing rants until everyone was sick of it. My big mistake was to think that when they figured it out, when confronted with lack of sales, they'd cut their minute prices dramatically to make it work and make a fortune. Ooops!!! They didn't. They stuck with their insanely expensive prices per minute to the denouement. Also, I decided years ago that I didn't want to be in the terrestrial service provider business, because a price war was sure to come and the absurdly high profits would go to near zero [or greatly negative for some companies] so sold Leap at $93 [not a bad move I'd say]. But now, at $5 a share, it's looking not too bad. Prices won't be driven below marginal minute costs [for CDMA] but certainly will for GSM, TDMA and analogue. But even CDMA networks and marketing plans which are geared to high-priced, wide coverage, low minute per month usage might be in trouble. But assuming they designed them reasonably well, they'll do okay. But maybe not okay enough to cover their interest bills. Leap, however, has been designed for cheap, high-volume minutes, unmetered, in urban areas. They have the lowest marginal minute cost. But as you say, I have trouble with the marginal minute concept, so perhaps I should be shorting Leap like crazy at $5. Are you actually doing that? I think you are telling me not to back up the truck at Leap for the fire sale of shares just yet. Is that right? Anyway, why should somebody shilling for Leap be condemned? Isn't that what we all do for things we like? Good luck with your short on Leap. Mq