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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: techreports who wrote (50488)	3/1/2002 1:59:35 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 54805

techreports: IMO, in 1999-2000, investors (on average, obviously many individual exceptions) were ignoring risks. Today, IMO, they are overeacting in the other direction. For instance, I think most companies don't commit fraud in their accounting. And, most of the Creative Accounting that is (mostly legally) done, is now on investor's "radar screen", being thoroughly discussed on chat boards and the WSJ. Cisco's inventory, JDSU's Book Non-Value, the inability of telecom service companies to fund the 3G buildout (and the lack of applications), these things are now in the stocks. When I hear many people worrying that the U.S. is going to go the way of Japan, it makes me much more willing to hold stocks. To me, this is an unreasonable fear. We have a lot of evidence, recently reinforced, that there are basic systemic differences between the U.S. and Japan. Imagine, for a moment, that Enron had been a Japanese company. When it got into trouble, the CEO would have called up his friends in the government, and the Ministry would have arranged a Fix. There would have been government guarantees, a stronger company in the industry would have been forced to go through with a merger, (the weak being saved by the strong). Most importantly, the accounting non-disclosure that is standard in Japan, means there would never have been a "run on the bank". Enron's investors and trading partners would never have even found out that the company was in trouble. Order and Stability would have been maintained, and noone would have been humiliated, by being made publicly responsible for their mistakes. That is the difference between the U.S. and Japan, and it is a profound difference. I've used this latest dip, to add to my EMC, QCOM, TXN, CSCO, CMH. Thinking about JDSU at 5.