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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dexter Lives On who wrote (19499)	2/24/2002 4:02:56 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196536

Show me a pricing plan that will lead to profits for operator and supplier. Verizon Wireless... Slacker

To: Dexter Lives On who wrote (19499)	2/24/2002 4:52:44 PM
From: Kent Rattey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196536

FO networks aren't a good example. People outside the industry don't understand that a lack of capacity in the metro and last mile has caused the illusion of over capacity in the long haul. This is due to the regulatory BS of the Telecommunications Act of "96". With the deployment of DWDM, bandwidth is designed to be abundant and cheap, but people have to have access to it at reasonable costs... DWDM is deflating the value of older networks because they can be built now for a fraction of the cost: It has nothing to do with pricing power. With AVNX's PowerMux, were seeing 160 channel systems from Nortel (Optera) and 176 channels from Fujitsu. When I first worked for GENU, our network had 4. Now, you can lease an entire lambda from a carrier. Interestingly, the vision of AVNX is 500,000 lambdas per fiber, and they say we need it for access rather than bandwidth. Routers will virtually disappear and the network will OADM, virtually reverting it back to a circuit network vs. a packet network. Back to the Future! Here's another tidbit for the naysayers of the optical revolution; the metro buildout will be 25x the cost and time of the long haul build.

To: Dexter Lives On who wrote (19499)	2/25/2002 10:39:48 AM
From: techreports	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196536

No. Show me a pricing plan that will lead to profits for operator and supplier. Minor Grub. your right. With-in a year, I think all of the wireless carriers will close shop and say, "There are no profits to be made in offering wireless data and voice." edit: Looking at FO data networks as an example - what made these networks worthless was not that they didn't work but rather that there was an extreme excess of capacity. The exact same situation exists in voice capacity today - that's why prices just keep going down, down, down... Yep. So true. Prices will continue to fall, because they've been falling. As for data over phones, there's no proven market for this service; with the data rates offered, I'll stick with my blackberry that runs on cheapo data networks. The all-in-one devices are rarely successful because there is no real need for them. Again, so true. History has shown that the human race will continue to stick with the same technology. No point to innovate and offer new products and services! I want a Model T. The cars GM and Ford are offering are crap. watch out, processor stocks will face tough times. Prices continue to fall. I know I've been predicting the collapse of Intel for 20 years now, but they simply can not withstand the continue decline in prices. they will fall. Rome fell, so will intel. i'm out of here. Interesting to hear critics of the wireless industry talk both about too much AND too little capacity. Ever try and make a wireless call at 5 pm? In most parts of the country, I find the argument that there is too much capacity less than compelling. opps..i'm back. That's a good question. My next question would be is, why are prices dropping then? This doesn't make sense. If spectrum is tight. Capacity is limited, shouldn't prices be going up? (being serious)? If there is a shortage of voice capacity, why are prices declining at an alarming rate. Economics 101 dictates that there must be an oversupply, or that demand is decreasing. Take your pick. So when Ford mass produced cars, and prices dropped, was it because demand was decreasing or there was too much capacity? take your pick. btw, if demand was decreasing and prices were dropping, wouldn't revenues be decreasing? PCS: 6.37 bill, 6.28 bill, 6.42 bill, 6.71 bill NXTL: 1.95 bill, 1.74 bill, 1.88 bill, 1.99 bill i would look at other companies but don't have time. nxtl's numbers are not that great. maybe, robv is on to something. Video is still a joke, and will continue to be that way until bandwidth comes down and user throughput is up. Businesses are struggling with distance learning and video conferencing because their employees can't get broadband out of their homes. How do I know? I sell it for a living. I'm still a believer that demand for bandwidth will continue to grow. 10 years from now, I really think we will find many killer apps. think about it, in 1990, when you were using DOS, did you have an idea what you could do with a computer? I think it's pretty amazing. i will only buy shares in these companies at the right price, tho. this is something most people ignored. as for long distance, i think the baby bells have put pressure as well as the free long distance people get from their wireless service. long distance will be free anyway with VoIP. That industry will disappear. robv's theory that these companies will file for chp11 and come back is a concern. This happened in the steel industry and some think this will happen in the telecom industry. I don't know, but the steel industry has more of a military and political thing. The government wants to make sure the US can produce it's own steel in case of a war or something. What we need is more carriers to go out of business. level 3, xo, and others need to disappear and disappear for good. they are the problem. oh, well...i guess we'll see what will happen