To: Maurice Winn who wrote (15640 ) 2/25/2002 7:46:27 AM From: elmatador Respond to of 74559 Not too many 'barbarians', MQ: Demographic shift makes Mexico developed nation By Sara Silver in Mexico City Published: February 22 2002 21:59 | Last Updated: February 23 2002 01:05 <<Note: that there will be few and fewer 'barabarians to be Boeinged in gray countries. Brazil is at replenish stage 2.1% at the last census>> Emilio Alba Aguirre is the star of the family party, blowing whistles, racing around the house and pulling streamers off his dancing grandparents. The three-year-old consents to dinner only when a host of relatives persuades him that it will make him as strong as Popeye. As the lone grandchild, Emilio wields a lot of power within the Alba clan. He is also one of a shrinking generation in Mexico. His grandfather is one of 17 and his grandmother is one of 10. His parents are each one of four. Across Mexico, families are doting on fewer offspring, marking an important demographic shift since the nation began permitting and promoting family planning three decades ago. Couples now have an average of 2.3 children, down from seven in the early 1970s, according to census data from the National Population Council. Life expectancy has also soared to nearly 75, up from only 60 in 1974, the government group reports. This puts Mexico within five years of the most developed nations. "It is an amazing transformation," said Beth Soldo, a sociology professor at the University of Pennsylvania. "In demographic terms, Mexico has crossed an important line, into the realm of developed countries, even though its financial infrastructure and investment of capital lags behind." The National Population Council traces much of the decline in fertility to broader use of family planning. It says that more than 70 per cent of Mexican women use some method of contraception to delay or limit childbearing. And only 9 per cent of women say they do not have access to the reproductive health care they wish. Credit is partly due to advances in medical research and healthcare. However, much of the shift can be attributed to Mexico's government, which made a strong investment in health during the 1950s and 1960s. It also created a social security ministry, which oversees the pensions that about one-third of Mexico's citizens, mostly former employees of the state and large corporations, receive. "Kids would be a family's social security - helping the parents in their old age, providing farm labour or going to the US and sending back remittances," said Ms Soldo. Of course, little has changed for the millions of Mexicans in impoverished rural areas, where it is still common to see families with 10 children. For them, and for Mexicans who can no longer find work in cities, the escape valve remains the US. Government statistics show that migration to the US reduced the population by more than 300,000 this year alone. Many, however, may be "revolving door" migrants who stay long enough to earn benefits, educate their children or save enough to build homes or start businesses back home. Because Mexicans are living longer and the nation is relatively young, the country's population of 102m people is still growing, now at 1.38 per cent a year - down from 3.3 per cent in the early 1970s. Mexico's median age is 23, compared to 36 in the US. Some of the factors fuelling population growth remain. Mexico is a religious nation where many respect the Catholic Church's prohibitions on birth control and abortion. And there is also family pressure for more children. "People are always asking me when I'm going have another," said Laura Aguirre, Emilio's mother, "but for me, one is plenty."