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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (15655)	2/25/2002 5:18:11 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 74559

Hello Jay. As the sun sinks softly in the warm Trinidadian west.... <On your <<12 years on a precipice without falling implies some good judgement or lack of a precipice>>, you got it wrong … try ‘Japan has been falling for 12 years and have yet to hit bottom, thus making my imagination running wild as to where the bottom is.> Thinking of the Nikkei, we need to do a US$ Yen adjustment to convert it to real money over the period from 1980 to the SuperLoop of 20.02 20.02.2002. In the early 1980s, there was an exchange rate of 250 yen to the dollar. In 1995, when I was trying to do my international financial swindle between, Yen, US$ and MSFT, there were 80 yen to the dollar. Now, the yen is about half way between those two extremes. Therefore, the Nikkei has been doing something a bit different from the standard graph in US$ terms. Particularly, it hasn't been constantly falling, but since 1995, when it was in the 15,000 - 20,000 range finance.yahoo.com^N225&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l there has been trouble in River City with a capital T! 80 yen at 20,000 vs 140 at 10,000. Therefore, in US$...oh-oh! this isn't looking good...bloody hell... those who own the Nikkei have lost heaps versus the US$ since 1995 and have straight-lined down from March Y2K [just like the Nasdaq]. That must make them feel decidely less wealthy than they were. They will NOT be going to their Sudden Wealth Syndrome psychotherapists. They will be smoking cigarettes like crazy [well, more crazy than normal]. I can't remember the yen/dollar exchange at the Nikkei peak in early 1990 at 39,000 [approx] but I think it was more like 120 or 130 or thereabouts. So, they'd already taken a big hit to get down to 20,000. To then go to quarter of that [in US$] they are now down to an eighth of their 1990 US$ value. That isn't a great return on investment. Gold would have been fine! They could have bought New Zealand in 1990 and been fine. Hmmmm, they will be feeling chastened indeed. No more "The Imperial Palace is worth as much as New York and Tokyo is worth more than the USA". Meanwhile, the Dow is swaggering around near the all-time highs with Uncle Al pumping a whirlwind of loot into the markets. Come to think of it, there are some chastened property people in Hong Kong too. My father bought [900] Paladin shares in the 1980s [foolishly] and they are currently at about HK8c. Maybe it was buy time at Nikkei 9500 with the big tough US$. For example, there are some CDMA properties and licensees in Japan. KDDI for example [though they are charging much to much per minute]. Gotta go, Mq