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To: Death Sphincter who wrote (32114)	2/25/2002 10:49:37 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

It's not an area I follow Death. I am hoping some of the folks from CFZ who are following the real-estate and related markets will give us the benefit of their research.

To: Death Sphincter who wrote (32114)	2/25/2002 6:22:49 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

<<care to share some observations on potential candidates?>> Happily. I think the big bagholders on the initial downturn in housing will be the mortgage insurers (PMI, RDN and MTG are the big axes there). The GSE's (Fannie, Freddie) are obviously leveraged to the hilt and will have major problems when rates start to back up...they'll get hit both on their services businesses, and on writedowns from foreclosures (which they are woefully underreserved for). They'll also get clobbered on their derivatives, essentially they have a MASSIVE swap portfolio that will get crushed when short rates start back up. The builders are obvious targets, too...I'd focus on the ones with greater leverage (KBH, DHI, PHM).