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To: Les H who wrote (1527)	2/25/2002 4:40:23 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 29597

DJIA mta.org

To: Les H who wrote (1527)	2/25/2002 6:49:12 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 29597

What to expect now. February 25, 2002 The "5 day ARMS" closed Friday at 7.89 and in bullish territory. The "Percent Volume" indicator closed Friday at .40 and in neutral territory. The "Hourly Tick Index indicator" crossed to the upside on February 20 and implied the upside push was starting to materialize. A bullish "Spring" materialized on February 20 and a re-test appeared on February 22. We are not looking for a strong rally to begin here, but rather a bounce to unravel the short term oversold condition that has developed over the short term. Upside resistance is the previous high set on February 15, which is near the 1125 area on the S&P. We are still watching the VIX closely and today's close came in near the bottom of the trading range that has developed over the last several weeks, closing at 23.28. This reading is still in the bearish camp for the intermediate term. We will wait for this potential bounce to be completed and to look to short on next sell signal. The "Hourly Naz Tick indicator" did turn up on February 20 and implies the NDX may bounce for the short term. The "5 day ARMS" on the Nasdaq closed Friday at 11.48 and in bullish territory. The VIXN is still at an extreme low level (closing today at 44.07), and implies the intermediate term trend is still down. The NDX has a gap left open near the 1440 area and the market may rally to that level and stop (it could extend to 1500 level, the previous high). There was a cycle low due between February 20 to 22. There are cycle highs due from March 1 to the 6th. If the NDX is up near 1440 or higher in the early March time frame and the "5 day ARMS" index is near "4.00" or below and the VIXN is at 12 month low, a sell signal could develop near the 1440 area. A small "Head and Shoulders" may be developing on the 15 minute chart on the NDX and the "Right Shoulder" may pull back to 1350 area to fill today's gap and than head higher to the 1440 gap. We may play this range if the setup comes in the away we want. We will send an intraday special report if the signal comes. The XAU longer-term picture is bullish. Drooy hit a high of 3.03 recently and is now consolidating. There are two targets, one at 2.05 which should act as support and start the next rally from and one near 4.00 for a sell that should lead to a 6 to 8 month consolidation. We are buyers at 2.05 and sellers near 4.00. ASA completed a bullish "Fry Pan Bottom" on the Weekly charts. Short term, ASA may pull back and fill the gap near the 23 level. HL has not broken out of its trading range, but we do expect it to happen this year. HL needs to close above 1.60 on good volume to do this. The rallies on HL have been on good volume since the April 2001 low. This condition for tells future strength in HL. If a successful break of 1.60 materializes this year, we expect HL will go to 2.60 minimum. Most gold stocks have turned the corner to the upside for longer term. Short term, a consolidation has started that may last into late March to early April. In Elliott Wave terms, the XAU appears to be in a Wave 3 up-leg on the monthly charts, which is usually the strongest wave up. Our upside target on the XAU is still 95 minimum for the longer term. We like Drooy, ASA, AEM and HL for the longer term. marketweb.com