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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: booters who wrote (15330)	2/25/2002 4:22:47 PM
From: hypostomus	Respond to of 18137

Regarding the puzzle analogy, when puzzles were more of a rage than they are now, the real hard core types would try to put puzzles together face down, without the picture to help. I think trading may be like that, where you don't even know what the picture is. Your remarks remind me of Alan's comment that he had gone into many dark alleys and come out empty handed. I agree that acceptance that the markets are chaotic is important, so long as you don't confuse that with randomness. I believe that the market is utterly deterministic, but that its complexity prevents us from seeing that. The vast majority of market events have a root cause that is not due to chance, analogous to the collisions of a huge ensemble of particles in Brownian motion. It is not random, but it appears to be random. I liken the market to a flock of migrating birds. They dart this way and that, changing direction apparently randomly with one or another bird taking the lead, but they still get where they're headed. My epiphany in the market, when I stopped losing money, occurred when I started to model the evolution of price over time as a process, and came to view various "systems" as representing snapshots of conditions at various points in that process.