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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (57967)	2/25/2002 3:09:27 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Cisco Price Forecast for 12/31/2002: Bambs (#52577) (#56533) - $10 NYCBoy (#52575) - $3 mindmeld (#56533) -$25 Jorj X. McKie (#56537) - $28 Gottfried (#56532) - $29 Nat Nithi (#56547) - $25 X-JOE-O (#56554) - $28.65 Eric - (#56558) - $27 Jeff Tarver (#57739) - $29.01 John Shannon (#57740) - $16.32 ----------------------------------- Overall average is $22.10.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (57967)	2/25/2002 4:17:49 PM
From: JeffT	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Mindmeld, out of curiosity I would like to hear why you would not buy at say 14 to 15 but would at 13 if your investment horizon is long term (maybe it's not). I understand about the mechanics of the DCF, but the price never really pays much, if any, daily attention to that historically. Just fear and greed are the movers of the price. You could make a case for the long haul averages approximating a DCF of some sort, but in the short term it has almost zero impact on the stock price of that particular day. Also, if your idea here is that the long term price will average around the DCF, then why would you not want to wait for it to drop below that number, 13, so that you will have upside? The idea is to buy stocks at a discount to their intrinsic value when possible. On a long term basis, the difference between 13 and 14 or 15 is pretty small change IF there is significent upside potential. If there is not a lot of upside potential then why buy it in the first place? I ask the question about the price because most investors freely admit that trying to time a bottom or a top within 10% or so is impossible. Do not misunderstand what I am saying. I am not saying that this is a good time to buy Cisco - I have my doubts about that. I am just curious about your reasoning IF your time horizon is long term. Thanks! Jeff