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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (48011)	2/25/2002 7:17:44 PM
From: Petrol	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Stockman, I read that post. The one thing that occurs to me is that while some traders on some threads here on SI have been bearish, there is NO overwhelming concensus to that end. In fact, almost ALL people I know in real life have been majorly bullish on the markets since the nas hit 2500 last year. I don't put much faith in bullish commentary here on SI, but I DO put faith in bearish comments as those are from the people who are 1. much smarter than I, and 2. have been correct all along since the bubble began to pop in 2000. I also don't believe the restatement of earnings forecasts. I don't want to buy stock in any company when I see insiders selling huge blocks. I'm not going to give my money to the very people who created such obfuscation in an effort to unload their shares to the public at a profit. Apparently, however, most people (as indicated in the markets today) believe that traditional business principles don't count anymore. If a company never made money, hasn't made money, and probably won't make money - why the heck not buy it anyway? Perhaps it really IS possible that ENE and TYC and a couple others were the only ones cooking the books. Regarding American consumers... we are all typically a very stupid lot - and this is my opinion noting how people believe that telecom and semi's will lead us out of a recession. I'm not going to believe forward-looking/hopeful statements until these bloated companies prove to me that they have the ability to do something that's worth my money. How many of these stocks are upgraded only to have huge blocks pass the tape? XLNX was upgrade on Friday and there were 92 block trades today alone. Think those are insider's buying? I don't. From the looks of the Form 144 data, lots of insiders sold at higher prices and they're not buying back now. I don't believe anything reported by the media as told to them by insiders because they have never told the truth anyway. I guess I'll just have to wait and see what happens. (darn! if only what I think could move the market... hehe) Pardon the rant, I had to get that out. :O)

To: stockman_scott who wrote (48011)	2/25/2002 9:09:59 PM
From: Cactus Jack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Scott, The extreme volatility in the markets these days, while generating great trading opportunities for the nimble, strike me as pretty dangerous. I think downside risk is much greater than upside reward until we get an increase in fear (VIX, for example, is very low). Hope all is well with you. jpgill

To: stockman_scott who wrote (48011)	2/25/2002 9:21:45 PM
From: Dealer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

A F T E R H O U R S .. Q U O T E S & EARNINGS RELESE DATES Voltaire's Porch Basket of Stocks These Stock Have Not Been Picked By Any One Individual GORILLA--A company that controls it market because it has a discontinuous innovation ,one that is not compatible with existing systems. The market is in a hyper growth stage, and they control the architecture. There is a high switching cost to using some other company's product. KING--The Market leader, properly with a two-times lead or better over its closest competitor. If the lead shrinks too far, the king becomes a prince, and we have a kingless market. Because they lack architectural control, and because switching costs are low, they cannot force competitors onto the defensive the way Microsoft, Intel, or Cisco can. Compaq is a king. Seagate is a king of hard drives. A lot of study has been done on these stocks by the Gorilla and Kings thread. There are the stocks that are discussed most often on the porch........and 1 or more are in most porcher's portfolio. The following Stocks are on the Gorilla and King Index ()or the Gorilla and King Watchlist SYMBOL---EARNINGS DATE BRCM CLOSE 34.49 AFTERHOURS 34.90 CREE CLOSE 14.94 AFTERHOURS 15.00 CSCO CLOSE 15.60 AFTERHOURS 15.63 ELON CLOSE 16.67 AFTERHOURS 16.55 EMC CLOSE 11.96 AFTERHOURS 112.20 GMST CLOSE 19.28 AFTERHOURS 18.60 INTC CLOSE 31.02 AFTERHOURS 31.14 ITWO CLOSE 5.79 AFTERHOURS 5.83 JDSU CLOSE 5.38 AFTERHOURS 5.37 NTAP CLOSE 17.76 AFTERHOURS 17.80 ORCL CLOSE 16.34 AFTERHOURS 16.34 PMCS CLOSE 16.55 AFTERHOURS 16.75 QCOM CLOSE 3.11 AFTERHOURS 3.20 RBAK CLOSE 6.00 AFTERHOURS 6.20 RMBS CLOSE 5.60 AFTERHOURS 5.60 RNWK CLOSE 31.46 AFTERHOUR 31.53 SEBL CLOSE 15.12 AFTERHOURS 15.09 SNDK CLOSE 8.78 AFTERHOURS 8.5812 SSTI CLOSE 8.87 AFTERHOURS 8.95 SUNW CLOSE 12.11 AFTERHOURS 11.89 WIND CLOSE AFTERHOURS The Watch & Wait Index consists of stocks that have some desirable characteristics but are not necessarily Gorillas or Kings - at least not yet. Most of them will not be, but they bear watching for that possibility.