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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lee who wrote (33332)	2/25/2002 11:36:28 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 99280

<<Monday Feb. 25, 2002; 8:30PM ET The markets are really trying hard to put something together here. The SPX / OEX are both trying to put in double bottom patterns under the 50 day MA. The INDU is forming a large range between 9500 and 10300. Many TECHS were at / near pattern measurements on Friday and bounced nicely today, however, they are still inside their downtrend channels. The things that are not setup for a substantial market follow-thru are the ^VIX / ^VXN (see daily drop-down) and the bullish percents, therefore, we remain at risk for further downside. Sustainable market moves typically show their hand more than one time....in other words, it gives you more than one chance to take positions AND the indicies all start showing the same consolidations (thus far they are not showing similarities)....and the volatility indicators will not likely be sitting at / near lows. >> from securitytrader screaming tech shorts i have list of about 50 and a dart board:) SANS(both excellent short or long at extremities) and the Semiconductors if they start salivating,say pressing 650 on the SOXX. But today shows that the vast majority of money managers are gung-ho on ANY hint of recovery and will start throwing it into the market as fast as they can get it. If this head fake starts early they could have this market to hemorrhaging levels(based on p/e) that would make spring 2000 seem insignificant. Steve i have become convinced americans and their optimism be a cultural imprint.It is a religion really.When they get wound up they are Kamikaze with their money. That 99%(or whatever bulbous number) of analysts are SOLD on ,wow,here we go! It is over,the recession is history,is no surprise and they can buy like there is no tomorrow if they get enough data massaging.It so american it is as predictable as the hours in a day.I actually feel this wanton optimism side could well turn a recession into a depression if investors buy heavy into a headfake. I frankly agree with Dr.Marc Faber that american consumers have ,in his own words, become "insane". But what the hell Steve,we have G_d on Our Side, right? Max