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Non-Tech : Money Managers after the Perfect Storm -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (12)	2/26/2002 8:06:16 AM
From: Tom D	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 46

So you think we are in for a prolonged bear market. My gut says so also. I have a major cynical side. What president would not milk the war on terrorism (with 85% personal approval ratings) for his reelection. His ten year tax cut is terrible for the economy. So, I build the best strategy I can fearing the worst. SSB says growth will outperform value. I say, they may be right--history is on their side, but I still want to overweight value, it is a more cautious and defensive strategy. Even if 2002 turns out to be like 1931, instead of the usual bounceback after two negative years, I think I will have an acceptable year. But what makes the 2000s different from the 1930s is that we are not having bank failures, we do not have a major recession, and we do not have high unemployment. I look at the bear market performance of Cambiar. In 1977 the S&P 500 lost 7.19%. Cambiar gained 14.4%. In 1981 the S&P lost 4.91% while Cambiar gained 9.8%. In 1990 the S&P lost 3.19% while Cambiar gained 2.83%. And there was last year, when the S&P lost 11% and Cambiar gained 6.17%. Overall, for 26 years, Cambiar had an average return of about 20%. Would you think it is most wise to be in cash, or in a portfolio that is 40% Cambiar, 30% Kayne Anderson (small to midcap growth), 25% bonds, 5% international? I have a lot a stake here, and don't want to be wrong. Any help you can offer would be appreciated. Thanks, Tom

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (12)	2/26/2002 8:45:59 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 46

Hi Skeeter, so you think we haven't experienced a big bust? If going from a high of 5500 to 1700 on the Nasdaq isn't a big bust, I don't know what is. I think the big bust must have escaped your observation. :) Seriously, though, you should talk to all those people who've had to put off retirement indefinitely and ask them whether they think this market has corrected. Yes, the S&P500 is at historically high PEs, but take away the top 50 and the rest are at historically low PEs. Good buys. You just have to know where to look and it isn't in the large cap area.