To: Raymond Duray who wrote (3077 ) 3/11/2002 12:54:35 AM From: Mephisto Respond to of 5185 California's GOP: Toast on the Coast? March 9, 2002, 12:53AM By CRAGG HINES Copyright 2002 Houston Chronicle For several years, California Republicans have been living in a mortuary, producing their own dysfunctional version of the cable- TV series Six Feet Under. In last week's episode, the party bought a coffin and climbed in to try it on for size. Between now and November, California voters will decide whether to slam the the lid and let Democrats nail it shut. President Bush and White House political chief Karl Rove have been playing comic supporting roles. Star of the season so far, oddly, has been a Democratic strategist. The story to date: In the nation's most populous state, Republicans hold only one statewide office, and that lone ranger, Secretary of State Bill Jones, was unable to raise enough money to mount a television ad campaign and ran third in the gubernatorial primary Tuesday. The nomination was won in a theatrical upset by neophyte Bill Simon Jr., an aggressively conservative financier known when he entered the race only as the son of the late Treasury Secretary William E. Simon. Even some supporters whisper that the younger Simon hasn't the faintest clue of what the race or politics is about (which, given the primary result, may not be all bad). The odds-on favorite as late as a month ago was former Los Angeles Mayor Richard J. Riordan, who was elected and ran the nation's second most populous city in a bipartisan manner. This model of moderation certainly wasn't to the taste of hard-core conservatives who hold sway in the semi-closed Republican primary. The only reason the trogs stomached Riordan in the early months of the campaign was that he seemed the likeliest candidate to topple incumbent Democratic Gov. Gray Davis, whose modest popularity has been dimmed by the state's electricity troubles and other problems. Riordan's ranking against Davis appealed to Bush and Rove, who last year urged an initially reluctant Riordan to get in the race. It wasn't the first time the Bush team had proven tone-deaf on the Coast. Rove directed millions of dollars into a lost-cause California campaign for Bush in 2000, money that could have been better spent in, just to pick a state at random, Florida. (Bush lost California by 1.2 million votes). White House involvement irked some top California Republicans. Former Gov. George Deukmejian, a Jones supporter, once railed: "I just can't understand how any responsible Republicans would even be thinking about supporting someone like" Riordan. Davis accepted that Riordan would be his toughest competition and did something about it. In the shrewdest move of the nascent campaign year, Davis' strategist Garry South dumped almost $10 million in anti-Riordan ads onto the state's influential airwaves. The ads painted Riordan as a rudderless pol who flip-flopped on issues such as abortion. Riordan didn't respond quickly, and his stock fell faster than Enron's. Two words figured prominently in analyses just before the election: "implode" and "souffle." When the Riordan bubble balloon burst, conservatives flocked to Simon, who ended up winning by almost 18 percentage points. It allowed doctrinaire conservatives to be truer to their narrow beliefs, which for some in that camp is more important than winning. In the afterglow from Tuesday, Simon and his folks are euphoric. But, as is so often the wont of office seekers, they're not dealing with reality. Simon didn't win so much as Riordan lost. (Aficionados of Texas politics may want to compare the situation to that of Ann Richards in 1990. She didn't win so much as the gaff-prone Clayton Williams lost. Richards' failure to deal with her conditional victory left her a sitting duck for the more sure-footed George W. Bush four years later.) Now we have eight months for what could be a grand -- and certainly expensive -- campaign. Davis should be able to paint Simon into a right-wing corner. Simon may have to depend on fate. The Republican's best chance appears to be beyond his control: that voters will decide it's time for anybody but Davis. "If the voters get real frustrated, and if things go badly for the governor, they will vote for the anti-Davis candidate no matter who he is," said Sherry Jeffe, a political scientist at the University of Southern California. What could go wrong? Come on, it's California. The list is long, topped by a state budget crisis and the prospect of more blackouts. Then there's the threat of natural (earthquakes) and unnatural (terrorism) disasters. With those exceptions, though, it may not be too early for Republicans to book mourning garb. The smell of formaldehyde is strong. If there's an inquest, the party is in such sad shape that it may be ruled a mercy killing. Hines is a Houston Chronicle columnist based in Washington, D.C. cragg.hines@chron.comchron.com