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To: Kirk © who wrote (4776)	2/26/2002 12:58:05 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 5867

Lack of spending will push out comm IC recovery to 2H '02, says Intel executive By Mark LaPedus Semiconductor Business News (02/26/02 12:51 p.m. EST) SAN FRANCISCO -- After a horrific year in 2001, the communications market will remain dismal and not show any signs of a recovery until the second half of this year, according to Intel Corp.'s top networking executive at the Intel Developer Forum (IDF) here on Monday. "The recession is not over," said Sean Maloney, executive vice president and general manager of the Communications Group at Intel, based in Santa Clara, Calif. "We don't see a recovery until the second of this year," Maloney lamented during a press event at IDF on Monday. The communications market took off in late-1990s, but both chip makers and systems houses hit the wall starting at the end of 2000. At the time, chip makers claimed the market was experiencing an "inventory correction," although the events quickly turned into what analysts believe is the industry's worst downturn. Instead of a "correction," a glut of inventory and lackluster demand wreaked havoc among vendors in 2001, especially suppliers of wireline chips, such as Agere, Agilent, AMCC, Broadcom, Conexant, Hitachi, Motorola, PMC-Sierra, Vitesse, and, of course, Intel. Now, the dynamics of the downturn have changed to some degree. "It is not an inventory issue right now," Maloney said. "Everyone is pushing out capital spending. That's the real issue," he said. The Intel executive was referring to a lack of capital spending among the major carriers and equipment vendors. Like the chip makers, carriers and systems houses are also suffering amid the downturn. There are some bright spots, however. For example, the Gigabit Ethernet market is making a rapid transition from the enterprise to the high-volume desktop market--a move that spur demand for LAN cards and chips, he said. Intel is one of the world's leading suppliers of LAN cards and chips, it was noted. Another hot market is the so-called metropolitan-area network, sometimes called the MAN or metro. Chips and systems for 10-gigabits-per-second applications, including SONET and Ten Gigabit Ethernet, will move from the MAN to the enterprise over time, according to Maloney. Wireless local-area networks are also taking off, especially the 802.11 standard. "802.11 is a clear winner," he said. "My believe the market will move to an 802.11ab combination. 802.11g is a distraction," he said. Another driver for communications is the shift toward off-the-shelf building blocks (see today's story ).

To: Kirk © who wrote (4776)	2/26/2002 1:55:07 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

We are going to rally any day now. The Contrary Indicator has spoken: Don't Look for Tech to Come Back By James J. Cramer thestreet.com XLNX upping guidance is a "headfake" and he has been telling us to stay away from tech for the past 3 years....hmmm, not what I remember in Feb 2000 when he advocated buying 10 internet stocks, about eight of which are now bankrupt. The fact that people still pay for this guys opinion is even more amazing the the internet bubble we witnessed in 2000 IMO. Brian