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Technology Stocks : Leap Wireless International (LWIN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pierre who wrote (1538)	2/26/2002 1:55:35 PM
From: pcstel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2737

Pierre: The fact that Cricket has managed only a 6% land line replacement rate (that's the number I heard bandied about, no idea if it is accurate) among its customers is perceived as "under-performing." I would tend to agree, and suspect number portability or the lack of same is the major impediment. Well, Cricket states that 7% of their customers do not have a landline! But, almost 60% of them use their Cricket phone as "Their primary phone". So number portability issue has not stinted the numbers of users, that use their Cricket phone as their primary phone! So that begs to question.. If these users, employ their Cricket phone as their "primary phone"..Why do they continue to keep a landline around? The best case study of this comes from Vesper in Brasil. When Vesper started their WLL business. Subscribers soared!! Then they ugly fact came out that you could only do dial up at 9600kbs. Whereas, with wireline you could do near 56kbs. Vesper subscriber additions died! This is why I have spoken about the dynamics of a "flat rate data offering" by Cricket! By offering such an service! LWIN can truely compete against the wireline infrastructure! IF they can offer speeds in excess of wireline, 60-80kbs, at a price lower than customers are paying for a combined landline/ISP. Then they should have very good acceptance. You can immediatly market this service to those (60% according to LWIN) subscribers that use their Cricket phone as their Primary phone, but keep landline around for Data Services! Agian, once they disconnect their wireline service.. You don't need a service contract! The other thing that a stand alone data offering will do is increase their customer base to non Cricket subscribers! In addition, Data Services may require little or no subsidies. Yet, provide a means of sharing the infrastructure and associated costs with the Cricket side of the business. Another interesting observation I thought was the Sprint people talking about how their system is very "under used" after 6:00 p.m. and on weekends - hence all the bundled plans giving those minutes away. But, those under used minutes still have a cost of service associated with them.. The "under used" network capacity after 6PM is simply the way people use their phones! They come home, turn off the cell phone, and turn on the computer! This is why the ability to dynamically manage network partitioning of mixed voice and DO is so vital. You simply allocate CDMA channels from Voice to Data as network activity increases or decreases! The key for LWIN to deeply penetrate the wireline replacement market is a viable alternative to wireline dial-up.. Something Vesper didn't have! They don't need 200kbs, or even 100kbs. Just someting better than, and cheaper than wireline/ISP combo! PCSTEL