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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (1928)2/26/2002 3:01:35 PM
From: yard_manRespond to of 306849
 
I agree with him and don't just consider what he mentioned a possibility ...



To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (1928)2/26/2002 3:22:40 PM
From: MulhollandDriveRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
Bold is mine..(btw...I heard a report on CNN this morning that currently immigrants are driving the first time home market and that the homes are generally larger and more expensive due to the extended families occupying them)

boston.com
Home sales spring

Low mortgage rates, warm weather encourage buyers to snap up houses in state, nation at much higher rate

By Stephanie Stoughton, Globe Staff, 2/26/2002

ome sales surged to springtime levels last month as buyers lured by low mortgage rates and unusually warm weather snapped up properties, two industry groups reported yesterday.



Sales of previously owned homes nationwide rose 14.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.04 million units in January, up from a pace of 5.27 million units in the same month in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors.

In Massachusetts, the residential real estate market also took off in January, typically a slower month for home shopping. Year-over-year sales of detached, single-family homes climbed 18 percent to 3,092 units, while condominium sales were up a stunning 23 percent to 966 units, according to the Massachusetts Association of Realtors.

''We are now in the throes of an early spring season,'' said David Drinkwater, president of the state association.

With 30-year fixed mortgage rates hovering around 7 percent, homes have become increasingly affordable. In addition, many home shoppers who were rattled by corporate layoffs, the terror attacks, and the recession appear to have reentered the market, much to the relief of the nation's real estate agents.

''Every morning, I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop,'' said Jack Conway of Jack Conway & Co., a Norwell real estate firm with 40 offices in Eastern Massachusetts. ''It's not dropping.''

Residential real estate firms saw their business plummet after Sept. 11. But November and December sales showed marked improvement for many companies, including Jack Conway & Co. And last month, Conway said his sales soared by 18 percent.

From December to January, US home resales rose a record 16.2 percent from a pace of 5.2 million units. But in Massachusetts, sales of single-family houses were down 9.7 percent during that period, while condo sales climbed 12.2 percent.

However, the state realtors association cautioned that seasonal factors made the month-to-month comparison less meaningful.

In Massachusetts, the average price for a single-family house rose 3.9 percent to $311,840 in January, compared to the same month in 2001, according to the state association. Condo prices climbed 12.4 percent to $215,696 during the same period.

Average prices for Massachusetts single-family homes and condos - largely existing dwellings - were on the upswing from December to January. But the sales price nationwide for an existing single-family home fell slightly to $191,500 last month, down from $192,500 in December.

Drinkwater said the state's limited housing inventory keeps prices at high levels.

And if the increases continue, he said, ''Some companies may end up relocating, because they cannot afford to pay people enough to stay here.''


Last year's layoffs and economic downturn in Massachusetts have had minimal impact on prices. But big-ticket homes have been staying on the market for longer periods of time, which is actually more normal compared to the unusually fast transactions during the high-tech boom. And the good news for today's buyers is that sellers appear to be more realistic about what the market will bear.

''Sellers have a better understanding than they had 12 months ago, in terms of their expectations of the marketplace,'' Drinkwater said.

Some economists applauded yesterday's reports. But others were wary about reading too much into the data, because recent home sales have been defying expectations and bucking economic trends.

''The fact that home sales did not dip like they did in past recessions has economists looking at this recession differently,'' said Jon Southard, chief economist with Boston-based Torto Wheaton Research, the forecasting arm of real estate firm CB Richard Ellis.

Anecdotally, real estate brokers report that many buyers are shifting funds they had invested in stocks to housing.

If so, this raises questions over whether the robust residential real estate market could be holding back the stock market's recovery, Southard said.


Stephanie Stoughton can be reached by e-mail at stoughton

@globe.com.



To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (1928)2/26/2002 3:29:10 PM
From: TradeliteRead Replies (4) | Respond to of 306849
 
OK, I'll bite..No salute..Don't agree.

Swenlin says:

<<I think real estate
is over priced -- way over priced -- and it has gotten this way because people
have been able to indulge their urge to upgrade their digs, not because
"people need a place to live". Everyone has a place to live, except for the
homeless, who are not creating any demand for upscale housing>>

Oh my oh my....here's yet another fellow who takes it upon himself to proclaim real estate "overpriced." Overpriced compared to what???? Who, exactly, is the arbiter of prices in this country? I want to meet him. <<gg>>

Furthermore, he seems to ignore the market impact of our growing population on prices. Obviously he hasn't noticed the temporary classroom trailers springing up outside school buildings in many areas of the country over the past decade, which were necessitated by population growth--or the colleges reporting that they have been flooded with too many applicants in the past few years.

If we don't run out of actual homes for all these people, we will run out of water supplies and other infrastructure needs to accommodate them in some highly developed areas of the country. If anything, housing is likely to get scarcer, and even more expensive.

********

Then he says:
<<Demand for
housing has remained strong because people still have the means to with which
to pay the exorbitant prices. If the economy doesn't behave as well as some
have been expecting, it seems logical to me that demand for housing could dry
up very quickly. Perhaps it won't happen that way, but it is amazing to me
that the possibility is not even being considered.>>

He seems to ignore the increasing levels of wealth throughout our society, with parents and grandparents leaving kids far more money than the kids deserve. Not to mention rising education levels which lead to good-paying jobs for BOTH men and women. (Remember when mostly just the men worked and the women stayed home?).

What is the likelihood that masses of well-educated, homeowning Americans lose their good-paying jobs and can't find new ways to make a living--to the extent that it would put masses of families out of their homes and create excess supply?

He also forgot that real estate prices have risen historically for many many decades, no matter how much easy credit or wealth or government programs have been available at any specific time. Some experts claim that real estate has risen an average of 4-5 percent per year, factoring in the times when prices tend to plateau and not go up or down.

Housing prices have indeed gone up in a spurt the past few years, but this isn't unusual. Housing prices have only turned down severely one time in the past 15-20 years and only then because of massive overbuilding and speculation on the part of developers and lenders and a short-lived frenzy of buying/selling by trade-up buyers who were making a killing on each house they sold, until the prices truly were too high for most incomes and the party ended with a bang.

Swenlin hasn't shown me any proof that the our real estate market is in a bubble stage, that speculation is fueling home sales, or that the end is near. Just because a stock market bubble burst does not mean anything comparable is occurring in the housing market.

Stocks supposedly have a finite value based on earnings and fundamentals of companies. Paying more than companies are worth is sheer speculation and is measurable.

If Swenlin has the supreme wisdom to decide the dollar level at which real estate is "overpriced", could he also exercise a little of his psychic power and tell us when real estate is "underpriced"?????
I'm dying to know.
<<gg>>



To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (1928)2/26/2002 3:30:33 PM
From: yard_manRespond to of 306849
 
let's yank the DOW up a bit here and see if they take the bait ....