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To: Boplicity who wrote (6446)	2/26/2002 5:14:41 PM
From: Venkie	Respond to of 13815

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To: Boplicity who wrote (6446)	2/26/2002 7:22:49 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13815

Are we geniuses here or drunks? Here's an excerpt from Aaron Task tonight @ the street.com "If you're trading this [market] successfully you're either a genius or you're drunk," quipped Jeffrey Saut, chief equity strategist at Raymond James. "It whips back and forth." That said, Saut noted the market "held together well" despite the Iraq attack rumors, the consumer confidence data and the "Skilling grilling," referring to today's Senate appearance by the former Enron CEO. With Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan likely to be "Street-friendly" in his appearance on Capitol Hill tomorrow, "I think we're probably still going to try the upside," the strategist said, noting the Dow closed above its 50-day moving average near 9910 on Friday and eclipsed its 200-day moving average around 10,060 yesterday. While cautiously optimistic about the short term, Saut is far from a wide-eyed optimist, forecasting the Dow will remain in a trading range between the low 9000s and the mid-10,000s for the next 18 to 24 months, "unless real estate implodes." He foresees other major averages being similarly range-bound. "I think it's likely too late to be a bear and too soon to be a bull, so you should be a boar," he said, describing the boar as a "cunning animal" with excellent self-preservation skills and the knowledge of "when to be aggressive and when to retreat." For his own investing, Saut said it's difficult to find stocks that are good long-term buy/hold candidates. "The only thing to do is buy when the odds are in your favor, put in stop-loss orders, and if you get lucky and it rallies, take a gain and move on." thestreet.com