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To: Archie Meeties who wrote (7085)	2/26/2002 5:33:12 PM
From: xxreno	Respond to of 206110

I would be surprised if the current rise in lumber prices have much effect on the home builders. On a historical basis the prices are still relatively low. The lumber market is over supplied. In other words, the mills are capable of producing more than is required for anything but very high demand. The most recent collapse in lumber prices was caused by a game of chicken by the lumber producers, and its recovery likely signals a return to sanity. In any event, lumber makes up an increasingly small portion of the cost of a home. My opinion above is the result of many years as a contractor. I was usually wrong about the lumber market then also. xxreno

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (7085)	2/27/2002 1:05:06 AM
From: jim_p	Respond to of 206110

Josh, Thanks. I agree with you. It's just a matter of timing. Markets always turn when investors start to believe they never will. I'm beginning to see that now in the markets. Shorted HOV today $24.75. Highest leverage of all the builders I follow, new $240MM acquisition closed last month which was funded with 80% cash and will mostly likely be done at the very peak of the market. Leverage post acquisition is now 2X equity. If the builders turn, HOV may have a nice fall. Jim