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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (33848)	2/26/2002 11:09:01 PM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

zeev how do you explain this ? Message 17119074 larry dudash

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (33848)	2/26/2002 11:10:37 PM
From: 4rthofjuly007	Respond to of 99280

Z<g>, we are probably looking for the same signals. I believe that you revised your forecast based on the fact that sentiment did not confirm a solid low. I should add that volume is part of the equation as well. I also follow investor sentiment, the COT report and all of the outstanding TA that many smart folks out here generously share. But sentiment as measured by volatility is going to be what makes me close my shorts. I can't give you a specific number but seeing how we are tracking last spring/summer pretty closely, I will either look for a vix number close to 30 at which point we will "hopefully" be in the low to mid 1600s OR a much higher vix number combined with other factors and conditions which might indicate that we will head even lower. I am expecting this to happen before mid-May. I don't daytrade. I went short NDX in December to the tune of 50% of my trading account and was very tempted to sell the position last week as it was up about 40% since being opened. However, I feel as you do that if we do not get sentiment and volume to cement a decent low, any potentially substantial rally will be delayed.