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To: marginmike who wrote (153637)2/27/2002 10:18:09 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
Based on the new home report as far as it can be believed sales of new homes are down around 10% from last month of reporting, which leads me to belive that the existing home report was a lot of "trading down" activity.

But with numbers that can not be trusted who knows.

While consumers' debt levels have risen in recent months, and ``repayment difficulties have already increased,'' particularly among low-income borrowers, consumer credit concerns don't appear to pose a ``major impediment'' to the recovery, he said.

Still, Fed officials see only a ``moderate expansion of consumption spending'' over the next few quarters. Spending didn't slow during the current recession as much as it had in previous slumps.

``As a consequence, although household spending should continue to trend up, the potential for significant acceleration in activity in this sector is likely to be more limited than in past cycles,'' Greenspan said.

As a result, the strength of the recovery will be driven by how rapidly business investment picks up, and there the picture is more mixed, the Fed chairman said.

Companies spent so much money preparing for Y2K and on the Internet boom of 1999 and 2000 that growth ``doubtless'' will not return to those levels, he said.