Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (34456)	2/27/2002 6:26:50 PM
From: jjstingray	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Thanks AJ, I just was not sure the spreads between the bid and the ask are always that big. As you know the QQQ spreads are a $.05 or $.10 max usually. I think you are right, if we see a nice decline here, the DJX puts will yield a much better return in the short term than the QQQ's will. The trick is now deciding upon the March or April puts.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (34456)	2/27/2002 6:55:52 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

My response to the following question on my board. Does the underlying volatility of the options premiums directly drive the VIX, and, if so, is the speed of these movements a new phenomena, or just indicative of the whole herd being yanked and banked (to coin an aviation term I am familiar with), willy nilly. It certainly explains the brevity of rallies and dips lately, and it has become my mantra for deciding when to dive in or out. It is impossible to say who is driving this truck. I do not know if the truck has gas or wheels. My personal perception is the "the powers that be" are desperately trying to prop up this market because of the enormous numbers of March PUTs that are out there. Seriously. Go to www.cboe.com and look at QQQ puts and QQQ calls for March. At every strike from 32 to 39 PUTs far outweigh calls. Now then..... Take a look at April. hmmmm BLANK SLATE In April, the crooks are free to do whatever they want, more than likely in both directions. No puts - no calls A severe plunge (after expiry - but can they prop this mess up till then?) and then a huge rally will get the crooks exactly what they want. What do they want.... That is easy! YOUR $$$$$$$. A no cost plunge after Mar expiry (no puts to contend with) then a huge subsequent rally (with no calls to contend with). Maximum pain for everyone and maximum gain for the crooks. Seriously, there is one huge rally coming AFTER we get panic. Might last for a month or better. From now until Mar expiry, who the hell knows? Delta hedging will kick in if they can not prop this sucker up. In the meantime look for MSFT INTC and SEBL to stay as healthy as possible. Expect garbage and bios to outperform (in general), and look for more weakness in the momos like EMLX BRCD etc. That is my read right now, subject to change at any time. M